Two struggling squads are set to meet on Friday night in Beantown. The Astros (12-20) aren’t too far removed from competing for titles. Houston’s offense is championship-caliber, but the pitching? Not so much. It’s the exact opposite issue for the Red Sox (12-19). A capable pitching staff has been held back by one of baseball’s worst lineups. Can Boston turn things around at home in this American League showdown?
The Red Sox are favorites (-126) over the Astros, with the over/under set at 9.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Houston and Boston on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Astros vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
Finding consistency on the mound has been the biggest issue in H-Town. Offseason acquisition Mike Burrows, traded from Pittsburgh, hasn’t been up to par this season. Through six starts, the right-hander has notched a dismal 6.25 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and 33 strikeouts. With that being said, he’s fresh off of a stellar five-inning, two-run performance on Saturday against New York. During that matchup, he struck out eight Yankees batters as well. The 26-year-old’s 3.86 xERA suggests he’s gotten somewhat unlucky as well.
It’s not as if the Astros need Burrows to be great on most nights. Their lineup is among baseball’s best, ranking fourth in runs scored (168) and third in OPS (.784). Much of the credit needs to go to Yordan Alvarez, an early MVP candidate. The slugger, when healthy, is among the sport’s most fearsome hitters. Through 32 games, he leads the league in home runs (12), on-base percentage (.462) and slugging percentage (.737). Still, this is by no means a one man show. Five other regulars in Houston’s lineup have recorded a wRC+ above 100.
The man tasked with stymying this potent Astros offense will be rookie Jake Bennett. The former second-round pick out of Oklahoma, Boston’s seventh-ranked prospect, will make his MLB debut tonight. Over 21.0 innings of work for Triple-A Worcester, he’s posted a minuscule 0.86 ERA, 0.71 WHIP and 16 strikeouts. The 24-year-old is most known for his exceptional control, having walked just three batters all season. Houston batters are hitting .170 against changeups this season, Bennett’s best off speed pitch.
Even if Bennett lives up to the hype, that’s only half the battle this evening. Despite a few flashes over the past week, Boston has been abysmal at the plate. This season, the Red Sox are averaging 3.94 runs per game, seventh-worst in baseball. They’re somehow even worse at home (3.23), despite playing at hitter-friendly Fenway Park. Big bats such as Roman Anthony (80 wRC+) and Trevor Story (41 wRC+) look lost at the plate. When Burrows last faced the Sox on April 1st, he allowed two earned runs over five innings. Boston has delivered the league’s third-worst OPS against right-handed pitching (.646).
Astros vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
It’s difficult to fade the Astros tonight at one of the sport’s best hitters parks. Still, Bennett’s elite command and changeup-heavy approach are promising. After all, Houston has scored three runs or less in five of its last eight road games. On the flip side, Burrows’ recent success and ability to get K’s sets him up nicely against Boston’s slumping lineup.
