American League clubs kick off a three-game series Monday night, as the Seattle Mariners visit the Minnesota Twins at Target Field.
The Mariners (14–15, 3rd AL West) have taken six of their last eight contests and enter on a four-game surge, punctuated by a three-game sweep of the Cardinals in St. Louis. The Twins (12–16, 3rd AL Central) have dropped nine of their last 10, capped by a five-game road skid at the hands of the Mets and Rays.
Looking at the pitching probables, we’ve got veteran Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo (0–1, 5.01 ERA) taking on rookie Twins lefty Connor Prielipp (0–0, 4.50 ERA).
First pitch is set for 7:40 p.m. ET. Seattle enters as a 1.5-run road favorite with -131 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Minnesota is a +109 underdog, with the total set at O/U nine runs.
Mariners vs. Twins Preview
Seattle Mariners
Seattle’s follow-up campaign to its first AL Championship Series appearance in 24 years got off to a bumpy start, but the club has seemingly found its stride. Despite key lineup absences — Brendan Donovan is on the 10-day IL, while Josh Naylor manages quad tightness — the Mariners sit seventh leaguewide in wRC+ (104). There’s also grounds for belief that offense will get even better: their middling .317 wOBA is underscored by a .336 xwOBA, which ranks sixth in MLB. That, coupled with the fact that they employ reigning home run king Cal Raleigh.
Meanwhile, the Mariners’ pitching staff has been lights-out early on. With the help of some batted-ball luck, Seattle ranks fifth in ERA (3.52) and leads the majors with the fewest walks per nine innings (2.40). However, one starter who hasn’t reveled in that good fortune is Luis Castillo. The veteran right-hander, 33, has gotten crushed to the tune of a 5.01 ERA (5.26 xERA) and 1.71 WHIP through his first five starts, while also ranking near MLB’s bottom in most advanced metrics. Most recently, he scattered two earned runs and six strikeouts over five frames against the Athletics.
Minnesota Twins
Things were going extremely well for Minnesota — until they weren’t. The Twins had recently rattled off eight wins in nine games, only to drop nine of their last 10. They enter Monday’s series opener after mustering just five runs across a three-game sweep from the Rays in Tampa Bay.
The cracks are beginning to show around this rather one-dimensional offense, carried by star outfielder Byron Buxton. While Minnesota’s 96 wRC+ for the season ranks 17th leaguewide, that mark shrivels to a disheartening 78 over the last 10 games — fourth-worst in the majors in that span.
While the bullpen has been handcuffed since the fire sale at last year’s trade deadline, the Twins’ rotation has been pretty solid early on with an 11th-ranked ERA (3.98). They’ll look to keep the momentum rolling with rookie southpaw Connor Prielipp on the bump. The club’s No. 5 prospect, 25, showed promise in his first career start, hurling four innings of two-run ball with six strikeouts and zero walks against the Mets.
Mariners vs. Twins Pick, Best Bet
Last season, Seattle won both games that Luis Castillo started against the Twins — even his blowup outing in Minnesota. With a deeper lineup and far more momentum, expect the Mariners to strike first at Target Field with a victory in Monday’s series opener.
