UConn vs. Michigan College Basketball prediction, preview (8:50PM ET on Monday in Indianapolis, IN)
If you’re taking a side in this game, you’re already doing something scary. Siding with UConn involves fading a Michigan team that’s won its five NCAA Tournament games by an average of 21.6 points. The Wolverines have scored 90 or more points in each game, and are playing like they were in non-conference play earlier this season when they steamrolled any competition put in front of them.
Siding with Michigan involves fading a UConn team that’s on a nearly flawless four-year run in the NCAA Tournament. During that span, Dan Hurley is 18-1 SU/ATS — the loss was by two points last season to the eventual champion Florida Gators, and the non-cover was in the first round this year in an easy win over Furman. While Michigan has been scoring, UConn has been limiting elite offenses — most recently holding Illinois to 62 points and Duke to 72 points. Hurley is a tremendous tournament coach, and leads an experienced and disciplined roster. Pick your poison.
Michigan’s win on Saturday night was the most impressive win of the college basketball season. The Wolverines dismantled an Arizona team that ranks top-six in offense, defense and rebounding, and did so with minimal contributions from a National Player of the Year candidate in Yaxel Lendeborg.
Michigan plays with pace, which aligns with how the Wildcats like to play. The Wolverines rank 22nd in adjusted tempo and pushed the pace all game. UConn ranks just 319th in pace and will try to muck this game up. That said, Michigan ranks first in defensive efficiency, while UConn ranks eighth. Michigan ranks fourth in offensive efficiency, with UConn down at 26th. Michigan ranks eighth in rebound rate, compared to 22nd for UConn — and the Wolverines hold an even more sizable advantage if we isolate it to the defensive glass. Michigan also gets to the free throw line more and shoots them at a higher percentage.
There are notable injuries on both sides, with Lendeborg set to play through an ankle/knee injury that he suffered on Saturday night, but did return against Arizona. Solo Ball is dinged up for Connecticut, and has been in a boot during the brief time off between games.
As scrappy as the Huskies are, we got a glimpse of them struggling against elite talent in this tournament. They trailed by 15 points at halftime against Duke, before a comeback and game-winner for the ages. But Michigan is deeper and healthier than Duke, and comes with plenty of experience, including better coaching from Dusty May. Duke’s lack of experience showed up in the second half, and while UConn is capable of making adjustments to spark a comeback, Michigan is less susceptible to allow an opponent back into a game.
I think UConn finds ways to slow Michigan at times, but not completely shut Michigan down like it did to Illinois and Duke over the last game and a half. Michigan tends to jump on its opponents early and not let up. That should be the game script for the Wolverines in this one. Somehow, they were able to make a huge Arizona team look small on Saturday night, and UConn could fall into the same issues defending the size of the Wolverines.
Tarris Reed will be crucial in this one to defend Michigan’s size, but UConn would be in for a world of trouble if Reed gets into foul trouble. UConn knocked down an uncharacteristic 12 3-pointers in the win over Illinois, and was able to shutdown the Illini from beyond the arc. UConn has a very good perimeter defense, but holding down the Wolverines from deep is a big ask. Michigan is shooting 44% from downtown in the NCAA Tournament, and is over 40% since February 1st.
We’re talking about laying a sizable number here, but big favorites have performed well recently in the National Championship. Personally, I have some futures and parlays that close out with Michigan moneyline, but would lay the points with the Wolverines if I were taking a side on the spread. I also think the game script of Michigan getting ahead early makes for a way to cut down the moneyline and look to the double result on the game.
Trey McKenney would be my look to back in the player prop market. If Lendeborg is limited and plays less, McKenney is the most likely option to see increased minutes and shots. He knocked down four 3-pointers against Arizona and has connected on at least two triples in eight of his last 12 games. He has also scored in double figures in four of five NCAA Tournament games, and has scored in double figures in seven of his last nine games overall.
