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Picks, Best Bets for UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan

Picks, Best Bets for UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan

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By: Ryan Wohl

Tomorrow night in Las Vegas, Nevada, the UFC is hosting a Fight Night at the Meta Apex. This event is headlined by a five-round Lightweight fight between Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan. This Fight Night begins with the Prelims at 5:00 p.m. ET, followed by the Main Card at 8:00 p.m. ET, both airing on Paramount+.

Check out my best bets for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night headlined by Moicano vs. Duncan.

Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan Under 2.5 Rounds (-140)

Moicano and Duncan are facing each other on Saturday, but still remain teammates at American Top Team. It is extremely rare for this to occur as fighters from the same gym traditionally don’t fight each other.

Even though Moicano and Duncan are going toe-to-toe, it seems as if it is a friendly competition. But even though that may be the case, both fighters are still looking to win this bout and move up in the Lightweight division.

On DraftKings Sportsbook, Duncan is a -162 favorite while Moicano is a +136 underdog. This is such a close fight as Moicano has the power advantage on the feet, but Duncan is more skilled on the ground. Moicano and Duncan have both only entered the third round once in their previous five fights, respectively. With that being the case, my favorite play is taking this fight to go under 2.5 rounds at -140.

Tommy McMillen Round 1 (+120)

McMillen is the disciple of former UFC Bantamweight Champion Sean O’Malley and Tim Welch. He enters this contest with a 9-0 record and eight finishes. McMillen has a similar brash confidence and look to O’Malley. His opponent, Manolo Zecchini, is 11-4 with 10 finishes but hasn’t fought since September 2023.

In this contest, McMillen is a massive -100 favorite with Zecchini being the underdog at +650. This is a mismatch as McMillen has the clear advantage on the ground. McMillen has won all eight of his fights in the first round. After having a majority decision win in his last fight on Dana White’s Contender Series, McMillen will most likely be more aggressive early in this contest.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.