It’s all on the line this Tuesday. Italy faces off with Bosnia and Herzegovina for a spot in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Can the Italians make up for recent World Cup troubles and avoid the shame of an early exit? Or will Bosnia and Herzegovina pull a wonder upset?
Italy is a -195 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, with a draw available at +295 odds. A Bosnia and Herzegovina upset is priced at +650. Let’s get into a prediction and a pick for this contest.
Italy vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina Prediction
Italy’s national team is likely unsettled to be on the brink to begin with. Losing both fixtures against Norway in the initial 2025 qualification phase sent them to the playoffs. For a team with such a deep talent pool and a strong history in world competitions, that alone was an embarrassment. But they’re one game away from avoiding true consequences for that failure after a 2-0 win over Northern Ireland.
That dominant win saw Italy win the expected goals battle 1.59 to 0.51, while besting Northern Ireland 8-1 on shots on target. Clinical goals from Sandro Tonali and Moise Kean put the finishing touches on a win. Now they have one more veteran team standing between them and a World Cup bid.
It took some clutch results for Bosnia and Herzegovina to get here in the first place. They pulled two wins and two draws from their last four qualification matches to climb the table and get to the playoff. In a nervy affair against Wales, the Bosnians found themselves down late and desperate for a goal. That’s when Edin Dzeko rose to deliver another astounding moment for his home country.
Incredibly, that makes this the 20th straight year that Dzeko has scored for his country in an international tie. Talk about longevity. Tied 1-1 after 90 minutes, the Bosnians pulled out a win in penalties after a scoreless half hour of extra time, and now find themselves one win away.
This game is going to be settled in the middle third of the pitch. Italy, always the midfield factory, has one of the best midfield groups in the world. Sandro Tonali, Manuel Locatelli, and Nicolo Barella can control pace and possession time from the middle. Being able to bring Davide Frattesi off the bench is an unbelievable luxury. Federico Dimarco provides lots of juice as a winger/wing-back hybrid, while Matteo Politano provides comparable versatility and skill on his opposite side.
Bosnia and Herzegovina has plenty of talent in the middle as well. Working with a classic 4-4-2 alignment puts lots of emphasis on young PSV Eindhoven midfielder Esmir Bajraktarevic, who put up some strong performances in the initial qualification round. Benjamin Tahirovic will be counted on heavily in the middle of the pitch, and was arguably their best player in a crucial 3-1 win over Romania back in November. Those two have a massive burden on their shoulders.
The striker groups will be interesting to monitor. Both teams employ a two-striker alignment; the ageless wonder, Dzeko, sits across from fellow veteran Haris Tabakovic, while Italy is likely to use youngsters Mateo Retegui and Moise Kean. Will the pace and talent of Italy’s duo win the day? Or will the savvy veteran hands finish their chances to deliver the upset?
Italy vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina Pick
This Italian defense is something to be reckoned with. Gianluigi Donnarumma has a strong argument for the best goalkeeper in the world, and can stand on his head if needed. Their three-man back line of Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori, and Gianluca Mancini is athletic, tall, and highly coordinated. I expect the Italians to exert heavy control in the possession battle here, shutting down a Bosnian attack that is far too dependent on the ancient Dzeko to succeed. Expect a low-scoring Italian win to secure their spot in the World Cup.
