It would be difficult for the defending American League Champions to get off to a better start in 2026 than they did this past weekend.
Not only did the Blue Jays sweep the Athletics in three games, but they did so, in part, by registering 50 strikeouts — the most any any team through their first three games in the modern era. The beauty of baseball at this time of year is that we don’t yet know if that stat says more about Toronto or the A’s, but it’s certainly noteworthy.
The Jays will continue their homestand on Monday when the club welcomes the Rockies north of the border. On the DraftKings Sportsbook, Toronto is a massive -293 favorite on the moneyline.
Can the Blue Jays make it four in a row? Let’s preview this matchup and make a couple picks.
Rockies vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
With injuries to Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage and Jose Berrios, the Jays’ rotation looks a lot different than it was projected to in early December. One of the new names is Cody Ponce, who will make his Toronto debut on Monday night after inking a three-year, $30 million deal this winter in free agency. Ponce is a former second-round pick of the Brewers, who made 20 appearances at the MLB level with the Pirates in 2020 and 2021. However, this version of Ponce is a completely new character. The 31-year-old dominated the KBO last season with increased velocity and a devastating kick change-up, finishing his campaign in Korea with a 1.89 ERA and a 36.2% strikeout rate. It’s hard to know exactly how these numbers will translate back to North America, and Spring Training stats should always be taken with a grain of salt, but it definitely didn’t hurt that Ponce only allowed a single earned run across 13.2 innings of Grapefruit League action.
It also doesn’t hurt that his first start back in MLB in a half-decade will be against the Rockies. In 2025, Colorado slashed a pathetic .203/.259/.330 away from Coors Field. It also posted league-worst marks in wOBA (.260) and wRC+ (63) within the split, which simultaneously leading all of baseball in strikeout rate on the road (28.6%). This is the worst lineup in the sport, and scoring seven total runs in the three-game sweep at the hands of the Marlins doesn’t really do much to increase my optimism for 2026.
If the Rockies have a chance on Monday night, it’ll have to be because Tomoyuki Sugano shines in his first regular season start in Colorado purple. The 36-year-old is one of the most decorated and regarded pitchers in the recent history of the NPB, but his lack of velocity and inability to consistently generate whiffs did not play well in MLB in 2025. In fact, Sugano finished his “rookie” season with a fourth percentile opponent barrel rate (11.8%) and a third percentile opponent expected batting average (.289). As you can imagine, that meant a 5.79 xERA and 33 home runs allowed — the third-most of any starter in the league. He’ll be hard pressed to shut down a Jays lineup that wound up third in baseball in wOBA last season (.330) and produced 5.3 runs per game this past weekend.
Rockies vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet
Best Bet: Addison Barger 2+ Total Bases (+102)
Barger hit 20 of his 21 home runs last season against RHPs, with one of those 20 actually coming off of Sugano. That makes sense. The Rockies’ RHP surrendered a eye-popping 2.13 home runs per nine to left-handed batters in 2025.
Strong Lean: Tomoyuki Sugano Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-123)
Sugano posted a third percentile opponent expected batting average last season (.289). Meanwhile, the Jays led the league in batting average in 2025 by a pretty wide margin (.265). This just seems like a nightmarish matchup for the Japanese right-hander.
