The sun is shining, balls are popping into mitts, and 9-9-9 challenges are being consumed. After football and basketball each had their turns in the spotlight, it’s officially baseball season. After sitting empty over a long, dramatic winter, seats are getting pushed down once again.
Opening Day was business as usual for World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the back-to-back title-winning Los Angeles Dodgers, who played far from their best baseball in the first four innings before running away with it in the fifth and the seventh to win, 8-2, over the Arizona Diamondbacks. They’ll continue their quest for a 162-0 season with a 10:10 p.m. ET first pitch tonight at Dodger Stadium.
With Blake Snell still on the mend as he recovers from a shoulder injury, the Dodgers will start the season with Emmet Sheehan — a long reliever in last fall’s World Series — in the No. 2 starter role, while the Diamondbacks will counter with Ryne Nelson.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers prediction, preview
Los Angeles didn’t just sit pat after winning the World Series, filling its two biggest areas of need by signing outfielder Kyle Tucker and closer Edwin Díaz in the offseason. Tucker recorded an RBI double in his team debut last night, and while Díaz hasn’t pitched yet, it’s hard not to imagine him aiding a Dodgers bullpen that really struggled during the 2025 regular season. Similarly, Arizona made a pretty aggressive offseason move, replacing Eugenio Suárez in the hot corner with a future Hall of Famer in the twilight of his career — Nolan Arenado. The Diamondbacks had been in need of infield defense, and even though his bat has regressed, his glove is still as elite as they come.
Arizona is sending a relatively strong pitcher to the bump. Nelson’s ERA has improved from 5.31 in 2023 to 4.24 in 2024 to 3.39 last season. He was particularly strong in his final seven starts of the regular season, not giving up more than three earned runs in any of them and pitching to a 2.85 ERA across that span overall. To be fair, his worst start in that span came against Los Angeles, when he gave up seven hits and three earned runs in six innings of work on September 24, but that sort of performance could be good enough for a win tonight. The Dodgers aren’t a great matchup for him — he had just a fourth-percentile average exit velocity last season, and Los Angeles ranked fifth in exit velocity and barrel rate — but at least he rarely walks batters, which is critical against a team that has finished second in walks in each of the past five seasons. Nelson was also pretty solid against southpaws, so he’s as suited to Shohei Ohtani, Tucker, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy as any.
Sheehan’s per-start metrics were slightly better than Nelson’s, as he finished with a 2.82 ERA and 2.93 FIP in 15 appearances (12 starts), but with just 133.2 career innings to his name, he’s still relatively untested. Though he had a dominant finish to his regular season, pitching to a 1.42 ERA in September, he struggled mightily in his first playoff run, recording an 8.18 ERA. To be fair, Sheehan has dominant stuff, posting a top-decile chase, whiff, and strikeout rate, though he was somewhat prone to giving up fly balls, which could be a problem at hitter-friendly Dodger Stadium, especially against a team that posted the 12th-highest barrel rate. He pitched extremely well at home, posting a 1.85 ERA in eight appearances (seven starts), so if he can keep that up in 2026, he could sew up a more consistent spot in the Dodgers’ rotation.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-122)
Both of these pitchers are pretty good, and each has similar strengths and weaknesses. However, while both give up hard hits, Nelson’s weaknesses are more pronounced than Los Angeles’, and the Dodgers have a more powerful offense. Plus, Los Angeles’ best relievers (Díaz) are fresh after Dave Roberts opted to go for Tanner Scott and Blake Treinen last night.
Strong Lean: Kyle Tucker O1.5 Total Bases (+109)
Tucker had two total bases in his Dodgers debut after his RBI double, and he recorded at least two total bases on 55 separate instances last season. Nelson is a great matchup for him: 62% of his pitches are four-seam fastballs, and Tucker had a .434 xwOBA against right-handed four-seamers last season.
