Looking for the best MLB prop bets today? We’ve got you covered with top picks and betting angles for March 26, 2026. Today’s slate features several strong pitching matchups and exploitable splits, creating value across both hitter and pitcher props. We’re targeting Byron Buxton in a favorable matchup against Trevor Rogers, while also backing volume-based pitcher props with Matthew Liberatore and Matthew Boyd in spots where contact and innings should work in our favor.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today (March 26, 2026)
- Best Hitter Prop: Byron Buxton 2+ Total Bases (+108) Strong splits vs Rogers’ pitch mix with wind blowing out
- Best Pitcher Fade: Matthew Liberatore Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-125) Low K rate vs contact-heavy Rays lineup
- Best Value: Matthew Boyd Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+105) Dominant history vs Nationals with strong matchup again
Let’s break down why these are some of my favorite MLB prop bets today.
MLB Prop Bets Breakdown (March 26, 2026)
Let’s break down the top MLB prop bets and picks for today. Click on each headline below to view the latest odds and bet these plays on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Byron Buxton 2+ Total Bases (+108) vs. Baltimore Orioles (Trevor Rogers)
The Twins were terrible last season, so it’s easy to gloss over the monster season produced by Buxton. Through 126 games, the highest of his career, he slashed .264/.327/.551 with 35 home runs, 83 RBI and 97 runs scored. He also product a .367 wOBA with a 136 wRC+. I love his chances of starting off 2026 on a high note against Orioles starter Trevor Rogers.
Through 18 starts, Rogers was good but not as good as his surface stats indicated. His 1.81 ERA was insane but it was accompanied by an xERA of 3.40. That isn’t bad either but we’re talking about a over a run and a half higher. Rogers is a heavy four-seam fastball and change pitcher, throwing those a combined 60% of the time. Against those pitches from a lefty, Buxton had a minimum .355 wOBA and .174 ISO against them. Winds will be blowing out toward left field in this game as well around 11-13 mph.
Matthew Liberatore over 4.5 hits allowed (-125) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
First and foremost, let’s make something perfectly clear. The St. Louis Cardinals are going to be one of the worst teams in the league this season. I may even go as far as to say that the Rockies could have a better record than them this season.
Now that I have that out of the way, let’s talk about this play. Liberatore hasn’t lived up to the hype of being former first round pick. He’s struggled in the majors and if last year was any indication, it won’t get much better in 2026.
Last season, Liberatore allowed at least five hits in 19 of his 29 starts, or 65%. The Rays aren’t a great offense overall but they’ll hold their own against lefties. The expected lineup for the Rays had a combined .332 wOBA with a .177 ISO and a very low 18% K% against southpaws last year. That low strikeout rate means they’ll make plenty of contact, which isn’t great news for Liberatore. He strikeouts out well below a batter per inning and had just a 7.2 K/9 last season. I expect the Rays to rack up some hits against him in a very hot day in St. Louis.
Matthew Boyd over 15.5 outs recorded (+105) vs. Washington Nationals
The Nationals lineup for 2026 looks quite similar to what we saw in 2025. That’s good for us, because we can carry over a lot of that data and use it here on Opening Day. This Nationals lineup really struggled against lefties last year, with today’s expected lineup combining for a .302 wOBA a .134 ISO and a 25.6% K%. Those numbers are exceptionally bad when you consider that is he average of NINE hitters in this lineup. So, as you’d imagine, Boyd plowed through this lineup, not once, but twice in 2025. Both times he pitched 7+ innings, easily surpassing the total we have for today.
Now, to be fair, there is some concern about the Cubs not wanting to spread him out so early in the season, but, I also don’t see them giving him much trouble. This Nationals lineup also posted an abysmal 6.2% BB% against lefties, so they’ll be up there swinging. Based off what we saw from Boyd against this club last year, I’m comfortable taking the plus money to see him throw at least six innings today.
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