There are 12 games of NBA action tipping off across tonight’s slate. Tipping off at 8:10 p.m. ET, in a Western Conference matchup, the San Antonio Spurs will face off with the Memphis Grizzlies.
This will mark the fourth and final matchup between these two sides. San Antonio picked up victories in the first two games by scores of 111-101 and 126-119, but Memphis won the previous game in a narrow 106-105 win the most recent time they matched up. The battle for seedings is in full swing, but both these teams are relatively landlocked in their outlook. The Spurs sit in second seed in the Western Conference, three games behind the Thunder for the top seed, and with eight games between them and the Lakers in the third seed. Memphis does not have as exciting an outlook, sitting in 12th place in the West, with the path to making the play-in tournament looking slim.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Spurs are 16.5-point favorites and hold -1600 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Grizzlies hold +900 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at 233.5 points.
Spurs vs. Grizzlies preview
The San Antonio Spurs have made a statement to the entire league that they have flipped the switch into contending mode. They sit in second place in the Western Conference with a 54-18 overall record, and have won 22 of their last 24 games played. On the season, the Spurs are 39-31-2 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 41 of their 72 games played.
De’Aaron Fox will miss tonight’s matchup due to lower back tightness, while Luke Kornet is sidelined with right knee injury management. Victor Wembanyama has taken his game to even greater heights this season, posting averages of 24.3 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 3.0 assists while being the most disruptive defensive player in the league. Stephon Castle continues on his proper developmental path, adding 16.5 points, 7.1 assists, and 5.1 rebounds per game. Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie, and Harrison Barnes have each played a key role, and second-overall pick Dylan Harper will see a bump in minutes with Fox sidelined.
San Antonio is scoring 119.2 points per game, which ranks third in the NBA. They also rank fifth in offensive rating, sixth in field goal percentage, and 14th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 111.7 points per game against the Spurs, which ranks seventh in the league. San Antonio also ranks third in defensive rating, fourth in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 11th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
The Memphis Grizzlies have slipped to 12th place in the Western Conference with a 24-47 record on the season. Despite making the playoffs in four of the past five years, Memphis pulled the plug on this iteration of its roster with the Jaren Jackson Jr. trade at the deadline the headline of this. Injuries have worsened this outlook, and the Grizzlies have lost 11 of their last 12. On the season, Memphis has gone 33-38 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 37 of their 70 games played.
The Grizzlies have a loaded injury report, which continues to be problematic. Ja Morant, Zach Edey, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jaylen Wells, Santi Aldama, Brandon Clarke, Scotty Pippen Jr., and Ty Jerome will all remain sidelined. Jahmai Mashack is considered doubtful, while Jevon Small is listed as questionable. Memphis has kicked off a youth movement and are sorting through which players are the foundation of the future. Cedrick Coward, GG Jackson, Walter Clayton Jr., Taylor Hendricks, and Olivier-Maxence Prosper will continue their auditions.
Memphis ranks 18th in the league in scoring, averaging 115.3 points per game. The Grizzlies also rank 23rd in offensive rating, 26th in field goal percentage, and 19th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 119.1 points per game against the Grizzlies, which ranks 24th in the league. They also rank 22nd in defensive rating, 24th in opponent field goal percentage, and 21st in opponent three-point percentage.
Spurs vs. Grizzlies prediction, pick
These two teams are trending in polar opposite directions and are content with it. San Antonio has earned a place in the conversation of true contenders. They are showing no signs of slowing down, winning 22 of their last 24. In contrast, the Grizzlies are limping to the finish line and ready to face some major questions about the future of the franchise this summer. Memphis has lost 11 of their last 12, including being dismantled 146-107 by the Hawks in their previous game and 124-101 to the Hornets before this.
16.5 is a significant spread, but one you should still feel confident laying given the context of this matchup. It will be interesting to see if San Antonio elects to take their foot off the gas with its seedings outlook mostly locked up and the season winding down. But this is not a conversation for tonight, as they will roll with all of their key players tonight, with the exception of De’Aaron Fox.
The Grizzlies have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 14 losses. They also are 23-29 against the spread as an underdog, 8-11 ATS as a home underdog, and 17-26 ATS with equal rest. In contrast, the Spurs have covered the spread in 16 of their last 24. They are 20-15-1 against the spread on the road this season, and 22-12-2 ATS with equal rest.
The gap in talent is more significant than the spread indicates, and expect this to be put on full display. Memphis is coming off back-to-back blowout losses by 20+ points, and count on the Spurs to add to this streak. The Grizzlies have lost by more than the 16.5-point margin in three of their last five games overall, and this will arguably be the stiffest competition they have faced. Expect this one to get ugly early and for the Spurs to produce a monstrous victory tonight.
