For the Los Angeles Lakers, in a chase for the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, the next three games are absolute must-wins. The West standings are so tight that a slip-up against one of the bottom three teams in the East could easily see Los Angeles relegated to the fifth or sixth seed.
The Lakers’ critical stretch of easy games begins tonight with a 7:10 p.m. ET road matchup against the Indiana Pacers, in the finale of a six-game road trip. Los Angeles won four of the first five games before dropping a tightly-fought contest against the Detroit Pistons on Monday night.
Given their lengthy injury reports as of late, the Pacers will be pretty healthy. Of course, Johnny Furphy (ACL), Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles), and Ivica Zubac (rib) won’t play, but Andrew Nembhard (calf), Aaron Nesmith (ankle), and Pascal Siakam (knee) all are likely to suit up, which has been a rarity in recent games. The Lakers also have a short injury report, with only Marcus Smart (ankle) and Rui Hachimura (calf) out. Deandre Ayton (back) is questionable.
Los Angeles is a 10.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-575 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 238.5. Meanwhile, Indiana is +425 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this matchup and offer a prediction.
Los Angeles Lakers at Indiana Pacers preview, prediction
Despite the Lakers’ disappointing loss to the Pistons — in which Luka Dončić shot just 11-for-29 from the field — momentum is still squarely in Los Angeles’ favor. The Lakers racked up some quality results during their winning streak, beating the New York Knicks and Denver Nuggets at home and then topping a potential playoff opponent in the Houston Rockets twice on the road. Even after a rough shooting performance, Dončić has played at an MVP level this month, averaging 36.5 points, 8.4 rebounds, 7.4 assists, and 2.4 steals per game on 48-38-67 shooting splits. LeBron James has seen an uptick in his efficiency while playing off the ball more.
The Pacers just snapped a 16-game losing streak, as Siakam blocked the Orlando Magic’s Paolo Banchero late in a win on Monday night to conclude a 37-point performance. At this point, the job is basically done for Indiana, which only sought to finish with one of the league’s worst three records to ensure a 14% chance at the first overall pick in this summer’s draft (since it potentially owes the fifth pick to the LA Clippers in the Zubac deal). The Pacers are currently 2.5 games worse than the Sacramento Kings. Regardless, there have been a few positives: Siakam has continued to play at an All-Star level, and Nembhard has taken some strides, so Indiana should feel confident about its ability to jump back into contention next season when Haliburton returns.
Lakers at Pacers pick, best bet
Los Angeles’ seventh-ranked offensive rating since the start of March should be sustainable; Dončić is, after all, virtually a guaranteed top-10 offense unto himself. What has been more promising — and more surprising — is the fact that the Lakers have ranked as a top-10 defense across that span as well, given that they have hovered near the bottom in defensive efficiency for much of the season, and their trade deadline acquisition, Luke Kennard, is hardly a defense-oriented player. Across the same span, the Pacers have scored at a decent clip, posting the 19th-best offensive rating, but they’ve hemorrhaged points, giving up 126.6 points per 100 possessions, which would be by far the worst in NBA history across a full season. To be fair, they’re only minus-6.0 with Nembhard, Nesmith, and Siakam all on the court together, which isn’t good but suggests that Indiana could be more competitive tonight than it’s been in recent weeks.
Even since the start of the month, Los Angeles’ interior defense has still been pretty porous, as it has allowed the fifth-highest percentage on restricted-area tries, and it hasn’t done quite as good a job stopping opponents from getting to the rim in the first place as it had for much of the season. It’ll be even worse if Ayton sits, as he ranks ahead of Jaxson Hayes in both rim contests and rim points saved per 100 possessions. But the problem for the Pacers is twofold; in that same span, they’ve allowed the third-most shots at the rim at only marginally lower accuracy than the Lakers, and they haven’t done a very good job getting to the rack themselves. Los Angeles, which has been the best finishing team all season from both the restricted area and the non-restricted paint, should be salivating. The Lakers have too much physicality for the slight Jay Huff (69th percentile in rim points per 100 possessions), an advantage they might not have against Zubac (86th).
Los Angeles should also be able to dominate the glass, even if it is forced to play without Ayton, without whom it has a higher total rebounding percentage. The Lakers have comparatively struggled on the boards this month, ranking just 21st in total rebounding percentage, but Indiana has been one of the worst rebounding teams in NBA history, snagging just 45.5% of all available boards since the start of March. Of the Pacers’ 15 most-used three-man lineups this season, 14 have been out-rebounded. Los Angeles has also been dominant in transition on both sides of the ball, and while both teams have fouled equally infrequently, the Lakers have been much better at getting to the line.
The one thing that Indiana has done well this season is close out on opposing shooters, but even that has seen a little bit of slippage over the last month: since the start of March, they’ve given up an above-average number of wide-open threes per game. Giving up uncontested triples isn’t good against any team, but it’s especially damaging against Los Angeles, which has arguably the greatest standstill shooter in league history (Kennard), the most creative active shot-maker (Dončić), and an elite movement threat (Reaves). The Lakers don’t allow many wide-open threes of their own, making them a difficult matchup for a Pacers offense whose respectable March offense has predominantly been buoyed by perimeter shot-making.
It’s not often that one team has an advantage in every single facet of basketball, but given how awful Indiana has been as of late and how hot Los Angeles is, that’s the case tonight. The Pacers have offered little resistance from inside the arc, allowing the most made twos per game, and the Lakers are by far the league’s best two-point shooting team. Los Angeles just beat Indiana by 11 on March 6 with all three members of the Pacers’ core healthy and both James and Ayton sitting; it could do the same tonight with James and (possibly) Ayton.
