The road to the 2026 FIFA World Cup continues on Thursday as the play-offs for a spot in this summer’s tournament commence. The winner of Italy vs. Northern Ireland will take on the winner of Wales vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina for a place in the World Cup.
It’s essentially a four-team bracket for one spot in the tournament. The eventual winner of the four-team bracket will join Group B in the World Cup alongside Canada, Qatar and Switzerland.
Italy are -330 favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook for this one, with a draw available at +400. Fancy a Northern Ireland upset? They are +1000 on the moneyline.
The Italians are huge favorites to advance to the play-off final at -900, while Northern Ireland are available at +500.
Italy vs. Northern Ireland First Goalscorer Pick
I will take Italy’s #9 to score first in this crucial play-off match. Retegui plays in the Saudi Pro League at the moment for Al Qadsiah. He has 15 goals in 25 games for them so far this season, which is tied for the fifth-most in the league.
The two seasons before, the 26-year-old played in Serie A. In 2023-24, he scored nine times in 31 appearances for Genoa. The 2024-25 season is when he broke out, scoring 28 times in 49 appearances for Atalanta. Retegui has played for a different club in each of the last three seasons as he transferred to Al Qadsiah prior to the start of this current season.
Wherever he goes, he scores. Even for his national team. Retegui made his Italian debut in 2023 and has appeared 26 times for his country, scoring 11 goals. The forward led the Italians in scoring during the World Cup qualifying campaign with five goals. Retegui started seven of the eight qualifying games, making an appearance in all eight contests. Only eight players scored more times in the entirety of the UEFA World Cup qualifying.
Retegui is a proven goalscorer who will likely start this game as he has for most of the qualifying campaign. I think Italy open the scoring in this one, and it will be Retegui who finds the back of the net.
