There are 10 games of NBA action across today’s Monday night slate. Tipping off at 9:10 p.m. ET, the Toronto Raptors are facing off with the Utah Jazz.
This is the second and final matchup between these two cross-conference opponents. The Raptors picked up a 107-100 win in the first game, which took place on Feb. 1st. These teams hold different goals for the remainder of the season. Utah is content limping to the finish line and maximizing its draft lottery odds. In contrast, the Raptors have overachieved relative to expectations this year, but hold just a half-game lead for the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference and need to pick up as many wins as possible to remain out of the Play-In Tournament.
Looking at the odds, the Raptors enter as 10.5-point favorites and hold -520 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Jazz are +390 underdogs with the game total set at 230.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Monday night matchup.
Raptors at Jazz prediction, preview
The Toronto Raptors have been one of the better stories in the NBA this season. They sit in fifth place in the Eastern Conference with a 39-31 overall record, and they have largely outplayed their expectations. Toronto is coming off back-to-back losses, including losing 120-98 to the Phoenix Suns last night. On the season, the Raptors are 35-35 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 43 of their 70 games played.
Darko Rajakovic’s squad is averaging 113.8 points per game, which ranks 22nd in the NBA. The Raptors also rank 17th in offensive rating, 11th in field-goal percentage, 25th in three-point production and 21st in pace. Defensively, opponents are scoring 112.1 points per game against Toronto, which is the ninth-best rate in the NBA. The Raptors also rank seventh in defensive rating, 10th in opponent field-goal percentage and 10th in opponent three-point percentage.
Scottie Barnes has taken another leap in his development this season, posting averages of 18.6 points, 7.8 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game. Brandon Ingram is the top scoring option on the roster, leading the team with 21.6 points per game along with 5.6 rebounds and 3.7 assists. RJ Barrett adds 18.9 points and 5.4 rebounds, while Sandro Mamukelashvili, Jamal Shead and Ja’Kobe Walter also play key roles in the rotation. Immanuel Quickley will miss tonight’s matchup with a right foot injury, Jakob Poeltl is sidelined due to a back issue, and Collin Murray-Boyles is listed as questionable for tonight with a thumb sprain.
The Jazz sit in 14th place in the Western Conference with a 21-50 record on the season. Utah holds the fifth-worst record in the NBA. It lost to the 76ers in its previous game and has lost 13 of its past 16. On the season, the Jazz have gone 37-34 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 41 of their 71 games played.
Will Hardy’s squad is averaging 117.3 points per game, which is the ninth-best rate in the league. Utah also ranks 21st in offensive rating, 19th in field-goal percentage, 23rd in three-point percentage and fourth in pace. Defensively, opponents are scoring 124.8 points per game against the Jazz, which is the most of any team in the league. Utah also ranks 29th in defensive rating, 27th in opponent field-goal percentage and 27th in opponent three-point percentage.
Injuries have been a common theme for this Jazz team. Isaiah Collier, Keyonte George, Jaren Jackson Jr., Walker Kessler, Lauri Markkanen and Jusuf Nurkic have all been ruled out for tonight’s matchup, while Cody Williams is considered doubtful due to a shoulder injury. Of the available bodies, Brice Sensabaugh is averaging 13.9 points and 3.0 assists. Fifth overall pick Ace Bailey has shown some encouraging flashes of late, posting averages of 13.0 points and 4.1 rebounds per game. The Jazz signed Kennedy Chandler to a 10-day contract amid the injuries, and the Tennessee product dropped 19 points, five rebounds and four assists in his debut. Kyle Filipowski, Bez Mbeng and Oscar Tshiebwe are also encouraging young talents.
Raptors at Jazz pick, best bet
The Raptors are the better team in this matchup, but they are not playing their best basketball as of late. The organization deserves a ton of credit for establishing a solid defensive identity and largely playing above its talent level for most of the season. However, they are 4-6 across their past 10 games and coming off a concerning 120-98 loss to the Suns last night. Phoenix outrebounded Toronto 43-30, the Raptors shot 68% at the free-throw line, and the Suns led for 99% of the matchup while stretching the lead to as large as 31.
Playing on the second half of a back-to-back and with a few additional injuries, there are some concerns about this Raptors team. The Jazz will not inspire the same level of threat as the Suns, but this young Utah squad is still hungry. The organization has its sights set on the big picture, but each player on the roster is focused on making their case on why they deserve to be a part of the long-term plans.
The Jazz have won three of their last four games as underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents that are following a loss and covered the spread in 12 of their last 13 under the circumstances. Toronto has also failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games as road favorites against Western Conference opponents following a loss. The Jazz are 27-22 against the spread when playing after a loss and 19-17 ATS as a home team. In contrast, the Raptors are 8-9 ATS as a road favorite, 18-22 ATS as a favorite overall and 5-7 ATS when playing on the second half of a back-to-back.
This is an important game for the Raptors from a seeding perspective, and they need to capitalize on every win they can get. But their level of play has been concerning as of late, and I cannot talk myself into them covering on this notable of a spread. Utah has done its best to stack the deck and maximize the team’s chances of losing games, but every player on the floor still brings their best effort. Utah trailed the 76ers by just one point heading into the fourth quarter in its previous game and led for 32% of the matchup. Expect the Jazz to keep things more competitive than should be the case and for the final score to fall within the 10.5-point spread against this fading Raptors team.
