The end of the NBA season is near, as three teams have clinched playoff places and five have been eliminated from postseason contention. Each team has between 10 and 12 games to play before the title gauntlet begins. One more team — the Dallas Mavericks — could be eliminated with a defeat tonight, while another (the San Antonio Spurs) could clinch a division title.
There should be plenty of exciting games on offer as part of tonight’s 10-game slate, with thousands of available prop bets at DraftKings Sportsbook. I’ve gone through and laid out by three favorites from tonight’s NBA action.
Top NBA prop bet picks
Luka Dončić 35+ Points (+130)
Dončić’s Los Angeles Lakers have won nine straight games to vault themselves into contention for a top-three seed in the West and him into the MVP conversation. Across that span, he’s been ridiculous, averaging 40.0 points, 8.4 rebounds, 7.4 assists, and 2.6 steals per game on 49-40-77 shooting splits. He’s had at least 35 points in six of those games and looked on pace to get there again in the Lakers’ narrow win over the Orlando Magic on Saturday night before a two-for-13 second half did him in. He nearly didn’t get the opportunity to score 35 tonight, getting whistled for his 16th technical foul and triggering an automatic one-game suspension, but the tech was ultimately rescinded, allowing him to suit up.
On paper, his matchup today isn’t easy, as the Detroit Pistons have had the league’s second-ranked defense. But Detroit has slipped slightly since the All-Star break, falling back to seventh in defensive rating, and they’ll also be missing two of their most important defenders tonight in All-Star point guard Cade Cunningham (collapsed lung) and Sixth Man of the Year contender Isaiah Stewart (calf). Neither Cunningham nor Stewart spent much time guarding Dončić in the teams’ first matchup, but Cunningham ranks in the 96th percentile this season in points saved per 100 possessions and Stewart in the 73rd, taking some of the teeth out of the unit overall.
Bam Adebayo +4.5 Points vs. Victor Wembanyama (-115)
Adebayo’s scoring numbers are obviously skewed significantly because of his 83-point outburst on March 10, but that hasn’t been his only strong scoring performance as of late. The Miami Heat center hasn’t failed to score 20 points in a game since February 24, the longest streak of his career, and he’s coming off of a 32-point, 21-rebound masterpiece against the Houston Rockets. Conservatively, that would put Wembanyama’s mark to beat at 25, a mark that he’s reached only once in his last four games. It’s highly likely that the Frenchman will need to do even more.
Of course, this is the most difficult defensive matchup that Adebayo has faced this month. Wembanyama is the best individual defender in basketball, leading the league in defensive RAPM and points saved per 100 possessions, and his San Antonio Spurs have had a top-five defense in basketball for the entire season. But Wembanyama hasn’t been as aggressive as a rim protector this season, ranking in just the 60th percentile in rim contests per 100 possessions, and Adebayo has added more to his offensive game while ranking fifth in defensive RAPM. Plus, he gets to the charity stripe at an elite rate, and Wembanyama has had his most foul-prone season as a pro. The last time these teams faced off, Adebayo outscored Wembanyama, 31-27.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2+ Three-Pointers Made (+109)
I’ve already gone with two of the three favorites to win MVP (Dončić and Wembanyama; Adebayo has no realistic shot of winning the award), so I might as well complete the triumvirate with Gilgeous-Alexander. The likely back-to-back MVP has led the Oklahoma City Thunder to 11 wins in a row since returning from an abdominal strain, averaging 30.9 points on 55-39-87 shooting splits across that span, and while he’s not known as a three-point shooter, he’s hit at least two triples in four of his last six games. I don’t expect Jalen Williams’ return to impact Gilgeous-Alexander’s usage; if anything, J-Dub’s gravity might open up the floor some for Gilgeous-Alexander to get easier looks.
He has a fairly easy matchup tonight in the Philadelphia 76ers, who have struggled defensively since the All-Star break. Across that span, they rank just 20th in defensive rating and have allowed the eighth-most three-pointers per game. These looks have been pretty easy, too; in the last eight games, since Tyrese Maxey went down with his finger injury, Philadelphia has allowed the 10th-most wide-open threes per game. Gilgeous-Alexander will likely be guarded tonight by VJ Edgecombe, who ranks in just the 46th percentile in total contests per 100 possessions.
