Two fighters in the Lightweight division, Shem Rock and Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady, are looking to get back in the win column. The two are facing off in a three-round contest in the second fight on today’s UFC Fight Night card. This event is headlined by Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy.
Here is my best bet for Shem Rock vs. Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady at today’s UFC Fight Night.
Shem Rock Moneyline (-130)
Both fighters in this matchup come from elite gyms. Rock trains at Next Generation MMA Liverpool, which is the home of elite Lightweight Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett. Meanwhile, Al-Selwady calls Fortis MMA home, which is led by top-tier Head Coach Sayif Saud.
Before signing with the UFC, Shem Rock was on a seven-fight unbeaten streak, and last competed in Oktagon, one of the top European MMA promotions. Four of Rock’s previous five victories have come by submission. Al-Selwady’s five-fight winning streak was snapped in his last fight against Loik Radzhabov. This is Al-Selwady’s first fight in over two years, as he last fought on March 2, 2024.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Rock is a slight -130 favorite with Al-Selwady being a +110 underdog. This contest is -135 to go to the judges’ scorecards while being +105 not to go the distance. Al-Selwady is +150 to win by decision, while Rock is +350 to pick up the victory by decision or submission.
I favor Rock in this contest since he has the physical advantages while Al-Selwady is coming off a long layoff. Rock is three inches taller (5’11” vs. 5’8″), with a four-inch reach advantage (73″ vs. 69″). In his first UFC fight, Rock only completed one of nine takedown attempts. He will need to be more efficient in this area against Al-Selwady, and it is highly unlikely his takedowns will be completely shut down in two consecutive fights.
