Michael Lorenzen continues to eat innings up for the Rangers, having gone six innings in four of his five starts. This comes despite the fact he’s given up over five runs in two of those four outings. As such, it’s no surprise he’s -150 to log over 17.5 outs vs. Cleveland on Monday.
That play is a fair leg to add to a parlay, but there’s a straight play I prefer after looking at the Guardians’ individual strikeout rates against right-handed pitching via the Player Splits tab in the Stats Hub on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Lorenzen has faced a lefty hitter 44 times this season. Over 31% of those instances have results in a strikeout. But when looking at the numbers above, Estevan Florial is the only lefty (or switch-hitter) who seems to have a strikeout issue against righties. Might be worth betting Floriel to strikeout in his first at-bat. Otherwise, I’m on Lorenzen to log under 4.5 strikeouts at -110, given he has a measly 11.8% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters.
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*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
As for the hitters in this game, here’s a look at how some of them have performed over their last five games against their hits line for Monday’s matchup via the Consistency Sheets in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:
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Josh Naylor has done the majority of his damage against right-handed pitching this season, and he’s also coming into this game hot. The lefty has logged five extra-base hits over his last eight games, making him someone to look at in the total bases category to go over 1.5 with +110 odds.
Nathaniel Lowe isn’t as hot at Naylor, but I actually prefer him above all other hitters at +150 to go over 1.5 total bases. Four of his six extra-base hits have come against right-handed pitching this season. Lowe will also be facing a right-hander who struggles with lefties. Lefties have a .412 wOBA and just a 21.5% strikeout rate against Tanner Bibee.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
