The Denver Broncos cut their losses on QB Russell Wilson and decided to take on $85 million in dead money rather than keep him as their starting signal caller. The Pittsburgh Steelers have picked up the leftovers and signed Wilson to compete with Kenny Pickett and that means he will start games in 2024.
There’s a real chance the quarterback the Broncos have starting in Week 1 of the 2024 season isn’t going to be at the level Wilson played in 2023, but in the long run he will likely be much cheaper and give them some room to build for the future, a future Sean Payton did not see with Wilson.
So, the question now is whether or not Wilson is still a good player. There is no doubt Wilson had his worst season ever in 2022 right after being traded to the Denver Broncos after 10 seasons with the Seattle Seahawks. Nathaniel Hackett had his hand in Wilson’s awful season, but there was no getting around the fact Wilson wasn’t a QB who could take a team on his back and win despite lackluster coaching.
2023 brought yet another head coach and offensive play caller in longtime Saints head coach Sean Payton. The change was a positive for Wilson’s statistics, but an awful start to the season by the team put them behind the 8-ball. It was a roller coaster year for Wilson, but when the Broncos defense played well and Wilson limited turnovers, they did beat good teams like the Chiefs and Bills.
The Good
In 2023 Wilson’s numbers look fine at first glance. He had 26 touchdowns to 8 interceptions, which put him Top 10 in touchdown and interception percentage. He completed over 66% of his passes and had a 98 passer rating. He also led the league in 4th quarter comebacks. After a 0-5 start, Wilson played well enough to get them back into the playoff race,, at least for a short time.
The Bad
Payton didn’t seem to trust Wilson to throw over the middle in the intermediate zone, around 5-15 yards downfield. Overall, only 26% of his passes went there, which was lowest in the league and likely means Payton didn’t trust him to read defenses. So, that had him throwing very short passes or very deep passes toward the sidelines. And the numbers do show that he was not efficient throwing the ball over the middle when given the chance. From 0 to 20 yards over the middle, Wilson threw three touchdowns to four interceptions, per Pro Football Focus. When throwing to the left and right at that depth, he threw 13 touchdowns to just three interceptions.
The Ugly
Wilson was sacked 45 times and held onto the ball way too long as he tried to let himself cook. Yes, the offensive line wasn’t good, but Wilson was a big part of that. Instead of getting the ball out quickly, he made his linemen block longer than they should need to. And his scrambling for more time didn’t lead to efficient offense, unlike a player like Lamar Jackson, who also holds onto the ball a long time. Wilson ended up with just 6.9 yards per attempt to Jackson’s 8 yards per attempt. That 6.9 yards per attempt was Wilson’s lowest of his career as well as his 10.3 yards per completion.
Is Russell Wilson still a plus starter?
No, Wilson is no longer in the top half of NFL starters, but, with his experience and “good enough” numbers, he remains a starter in a league that just doesn’t have enough excellent quarterbacks to go around.
Right now Wilson needs to be looked at as a bridge to a young quarterback with upside to become a Top 10 guy. Wilson isn’t that anymore and we can’t expect him to be the missing piece for the Steelers to make a run in the playoffs. But, for his price and the upgrade, it’s hard to hate the trade.
The Steelers under Mike Tomlin have never had a losing regular season, but also haven’t won a playoff game in seven years. Wilson is an upgrade over Pickett. And with a good defense and Arthur Smith’s running focus, Wilson shouldn’t be forced to put the team on his back. Under these conditions the Steelers could make the playoffs and maybe have a better shot at coming out with a win, but making a run is likely too much to ask for Wilson in his 13th season.