With less than a month remaining in the 2025-26 regular season, the NBA is fully in playoff mode. Three teams in the East and six in the West have clinched at least a Play-In Tournament appearance, and the Phoenix Suns could join that list tonight. Of course, these contenders have had microscopes on them all season, but they’re getting closer to do-or-die territory.
All three of the nationally-televised are worth paying especially close attention to, as each could realistically be a first-round series. At 7 p.m. ET, the Orlando Magic will host the red-hot Atlanta Hawks, which could conceivably be the 4-5 matchup or, more likely, a Play-In Tournament contest. Then, at 9:30 p.m. ET, the Los Angeles Lakers will travel to face the Houston Rockets in what could be either the 3-6 or 4-5 matchup in the West, and at 10 p.m. ET, the San Antonio Spurs — effectively locked into the second seed — will travel to take on the LA Clippers, who are in solid position to snag the seventh seed.
All in all, there are eight games on offer tonight, which means thousands of prop bets available at DraftKings Sportsbook. In preparation for the playoffs, I’m going to stick with the nationally-televised games for my three favorite prop bets tonight, since none of the other five contests could realistically happen in the postseason.
Top NBA prop bet picks
Paolo Banchero 25+ Points (-121)
For all that he has been maligned for his inefficiency and inconsistency this season, Banchero has been hot since the All-Star break, averaging 25.5 points per game to help the Magic post a 10-3 record. All in all, he’s had at least 25 points eight times in 13 games, including in four of his last five, and his usage rate should remain high as long as Franz Wagner (ankle) is sidelined. While his efficiency has still been sub-standard, he’s been more aggressive about getting downhill after the All-Star break, averaging 1.1 more attempts in the restricted area per game than before the intermission, and he’s finished such shots at a rate more than 10 percentage points higher.
On paper, the Hawks’ defense has been good, as over their nine-game win streak, they’ve been 4.6 points per 100 possessions more efficient defensively than any other team. However, they’ve picked up only one win over a team with a winning record, and their defensive record has relied somewhat on good fortune. Their perimeter defense has still been porous, as opponents have attempted the fourth-most layups per game during that span, and opponents have shot the ball rather poorly both in the restricted area and on wide-open threes, so they’re bound for some regression to the mean. Atlanta’s wings are lengthy, but they might not have the strength to counter Banchero’s bully-ball style.
Luka Dončić 2+ Steals (+113)
Dončić has been incredible as of late, and the Lakers have steadily climbed up the standings. Since the All-Star break, the Slovenian is averaging 32.7 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 8.5 assists per game on 47-42-75 shooting splits while adding 1.7 steals and 1.0 blocks per game. In fact, he’s had at least two steals in five of his last six games, his finest defensive stretch since arriving in Los Angeles. For all that Dončić’s defense has been panned, this has been among the best campaigns of his career, as he’s posted his second-highest steal rate, deflection rate, and stop rate.
Dončić has a fairly friendly matchup against the inconsistent Rockets, whose lack of a true point guard has proven to be an issue all season. Despite playing at a fairly deliberate pace, Houston has coughed up the the fourth-most opponent steals per game this season, and it has actually gotten even worse in that respect since January 20, when 2024 lottery pick Reed Sheppard finally locked in a more consistent role. Individually, Sheppard has struggled somewhat with the increased responsibility, recording at least three turnovers in all but one of his games this month. Dončić only had one steal the only time he faced the Rockets this season, but he’s had at least two in four of his five games against the other four most turnover-prone teams.
Victor Wembanyama 40+ Points + Rebounds (-101)
Wembanyama has made no secret of his desire to win the league’s MVP award, and he’s certainly played like it over the last five games, averaging 33.0 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 3.8 blocks per game on 55-47-81 shooting splits. In that span, he’s had at least 40 points/rebounds in three of the five games, and although the March 6 win over the Clippers was an exception, he played only 21 minutes in that game because he was on a minutes restriction on the second night of a back-to-back. San Antonio hasn’t played since a Saturday matinee, and he isn’t listed on the injury report, so he should play at least 30 minutes. When he has reached that threshold, he’s recorded 40+ P/R in 11 of 23 games.
Meanwhile, LA will probably be without Kawhi Leonard, who suffered a sprained ankle in the team’s defeat against the Sacramento Kings on Saturday, and the Clippers are a completely different unit on both sides of the ball without Leonard. They’re not a great rebounding team as is, ranking in the bottom 10 in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage, and their total rebounding percentage drops by 1.1 percentage points with Leonard on the bench. Plus, their defensive rating rises from 114.8 (the equivalent of the league’s 13th-worst mark) in Leonard’s minutes to 119.1 (fourth-worst) when he sits. There’s blowout potential, but a Spurs blowout would require Wembanyama to feast.
