In the first of the two semifinals of the World Baseball Classic, we get a dream matchup between Team USA and the Dominican Republic. Both teams are loaded with MLB superstars and bring plenty of power potential. It should be an outstanding matchup on Sunday night at 8:00 p.m. ET on FS1. The winner will book a spot in Tuesday’s championship game, so let’s take a look at the matchup and see what to expect in this contest.
Team USA avoided a disastrous elimination after its loss to Italy in Pool Play, and it rebounded to beat Team Canada in the first game of the Knockout Round, 5-3. The Dominican team has been dominant, sweeping Pool D Play and then dominating Korea with a 10-0 win on Friday in the first game of the Knockout Round.
Team USA is a -135 favorite on the moneyline, while DR is +105 to get the win, with the total set at nine runs. Let’s break down the odds and lines for both sides on DraftKings Sportsbook.
USA vs. Dominican Republic prediction, preview
One of the big advantages for Team USA is on the mound, where manager Mark DeRosa will have the privilege of giving the ball to Paul Skenes. In his first full season in the majors, the 23-year-old posted dominant numbers for the Pirates, going 10-10, but with a 1.97 ERA, 2.36 FIP and 216 strikeouts in 187 2/3 innings.
Skenes looked excellent last Monday against Mexico, going four scoreless innings with seven strikeouts. He should be set to throw 75-80 pitches in this outing, according to DeRosa, which hopefully will get him through four or five innings.
He’ll be facing the DR’s incredibly impressive lineup. Fernando Tatis Jr., Ketel Marte, Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Manny Machado and Junior Caminero have been the core of the team’s batting order, and the team has smashed an impressive total of 14 homers in five games. The lineup has generated at least 10 runs in four of its five games, totaling 51 runs in its 5-0 start to the tournament.
The Dominican lineup has looked like an unstoppable force, but now it’ll face the immovable object of Paul Skenes in what should be an outstanding matchup to enjoy this Sunday.
Team USA’s lineup is full of plenty of power as well, but it has only scored 10 runs in one game all tournament and has totaled 40 runs in five games. The top of the lineup features Bobby Witt Jr., Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber and Cal Raleigh. The rest of the lineup includes All-Stars and rising young players with plenty of potential. Judge and Pete Crow-Armstrong each have two of the team’s seven homers in their five games.
While the lineup only has half as many homers as DR’s total, it does get a much easier matchup against Luis Severino. Severino gave up just one run against the Netherlands in his first start of the WBC, touching 99.3 MPH on his fastest pitch and averaging 98.1 MPH with his fastball. His velocity was down last year in his first season with the Athletics, but if he keeps throwing so hard, he could find much more success this season and in this start against a strong Team USA lineup.
USA vs. Dominican Republic pick, best bet
Both teams have so much power potential in their lineup that the scoreboard should be lit up early and often on Sunday night. I’m taking the over in this matchup and am willing to give the half a run to get the odds to almost even money.
Even if Skenes dominates, his pitch count will keep him from working too deep in the game. The Dominican Republic has gone over this total in every one of its games this tournament, going over it by themselves in all but one of the games. Team USA has gone over this prop in three of its five games as well, with a total of eight runs in each of the two games that were under.
While both teams have strong arms in the bullpen as well, the power in the lineups should lead to at least 10 runs in this storybook showdown.
