The Toledo Rockets will take on the Akron Zips Saturday night for the MAC Championship and a trip to the NCAA Tournament.
These teams met once this season, with Akron pulling away for a 91-81 home victory on Jan. 27, despite an impressive shooting display from the Rockets. The game featured several lead changes, making it much closer than the final score would suggest.
Akron enters as an 8.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Toledo sits as a +310 underdog. The game total is set at 157.5 points.
Toledo vs. Akron prediction, preview
Toledo is 19-14 with an 11-7 mark in MAC play. The Rockets have won six of their last seven games, including playoff wins over Bowling Green and UMass to reach the conference finale. They are 17-14 against the spread and have fallen under the game total in 18 of 31 qualified games.
Tod Kowalczyk’s squad ranks 64th nationally in scoring, 56th in offensive rating, 28th in field-goal percentage, and 42nd in three-point percentage. On the other end, Toledo sits 250th in opponent scoring, 241st in defensive rating, 320th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 223rd in opponent three-point percentage.
Sonny Wilson headlines the production for Toledo, averaging 17.3 points, 4.5 assists, and 3.9 rebounds per game while shooting just under 40% from beyond the arc. Leroy Blyden Jr. adds 16.3 points, 4.5 assists, and four rebounds on a team-high 40.7% from deep. Sean Craig contributes 11.7 points and a team-high 7.3 rebounds, while Austin Parks chips in 10.6 points and 5.5 boards. Kyler Vanderjagt, Jaylan Ouwinga, and Mynor Strong also play key roles in the rotation.
Akron is 28-5 this season with a 17-1 record in conference play. The Zips have won 18 of their last 19 games and enter Saturday’s finale on a nine-game winning streak. They are 17-14 against the spread and have fallen under the game total in 17 of 31 qualifying games.
John Groce’s squad ranks seventh nationally in scoring, sixth in offensive rating, 10th in field-goal percentage, and 18th in three-point percentage. Defensively, the Zips sit 170th in opponent scoring, 66th in defensive rating, 56th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 252nd in opponent three-point percentage.
Tavari Johnson leads with MAC with 20.3 points per game, along with five assists, and shoots 37.9% from downtown. Amani Lyles adds 14.5 points and a team-high 7.8 rebounds, leading the conference with a 62.6% effective field-goal percentage. Shammah Scott averages 12.8 points while leading the Zips with a 42.9% clip from three. Evan Mahaffey also adds double figures with 10.3 points. Eric Mahaffey, Bowen Hardman, and Sharron Young round out the rotation.
Toledo vs. Akron pick, best bet
Akron has been on another level of late, and should continue to dominate the MAC in Saturday’s finale. The Zips fell just short of the 12.5-point spread in the first matchup against Toledo, but they’ve covered significant spreads all season. They’re 17-14 against the spread, with nine of their covers coming by double digits.
However, I’m backing Akron and Toledo to clear the 157.5-point total for this matchup. These are two of the most potent offenses in the country, and both defenses have shown cracks. The Zips and Rockets combined for 172 points in their first matchup. If playing to their averages, the game total would finish at 169.8 points.
Toledo had no trouble with Akron’s defense in the first matchup, shooting 55% from three, its best performance of the season. Both teams also shot over 50% from the field in that matchup. Toledo has scored 81 or more points in 14 games, including 9 games with 90 or more points. Akron has cleared 82 points in 23 games, including 17 with at least 90 points.
Expect both sides to push the pace and put points up in a hurry. The modest game total feels too low based on each team’s scoring prowess, especially with the MAC title and a trip to March Madness on the line.
