Michigan State vs. UCLA College Basketball prediction, preview
UCLA won and covered its opening game in Big Ten Tournament play, but it was just the second time this season that the Bruins have won or covered a game outside of the Pacific Time Zone. The 13-point win on Thursday came over a poor Rutgers team, and the other win was earlier this season at Penn State, which also finished at the bottom of the conference.
Outside of the bottom feeders, UCLA is 0-6 SU/ATS when its not playing on the west coast. The Bruins lost those six games by an average of 14.5 points, including a 23-point loss on the road to the Spartans about a month ago. In terms of the metrics on KenPom, both of these offense rank about even, but Michigan State holds multiple edges that should help break this game open.
Sparty has the far superior defense, ranking eighth in defensive efficiency on KenPom. The Bruins rank just 44th by the same measure. Where Michigan State holds its largest advantage is on the glass. The Spartans rank third nationally in rebound rate, while UCLA is barely in the top-200. I expect Tom Izzo’s squad to get more stops and limit second chances for UCLA with their rebounding. Sparty should also be able to generate more second chances for themselves on the offensive glass.
With advantages all over the floor, and the Bruins playing their second game out east in as many days, I expect Michigan State to win with some margin and advance to the Big Ten Semifinals. I’ve laid the points with Sparty, and also like pairing them with Akron in a moneyline parlay. The Zips are the far superior team in the MAC, and I’m expecting them to go on and claim the auto-bid to the NCAA Tournament out of the MAC.
