Wisconsin vs. Illinois College Basketball prediction, preview
Wisconsin advanced on Thursday afternoon in its opening game of the Big Ten Tournament, but let me down with a late collapse. I really liked laying 6.5 points with the Badgers, who built up an 18-point lead in the second half, but nearly lost the game outright. I like going back to the Badgers on Friday, going from huge favorites to huge underdogs.
After losing focus late on Thursday, I think Wisconsin will remain locked in this time around against an Illinois team if defeated in overtime on the road this season. The Badgers have been tremendous as sizable underdogs this season, not only going 3-0 ATS when catching +8.5 or more, but winning all three games outright!
Wisco was 8-2 ATS over its last 10 prior to Big Ten Tournament play, and Illinois has looked human lately, finishing the regular season just 4-4 straight up over its last eight. I did make a play on Wisconsin +8.5, but am actually making my larger play in the game on the total.
When these teams met in the regular season, the Badgers won by a final score of 92-90, combining for 182 total points. As mentioned, the game did go to overtime, but we saw 162 points in regulation. Per KenPom, these are two top-10 offenses in the country in terms of offensive efficiency, with the Illini ranking tops in the nation.
The defenses don’t provide much resistance, particularly on Wisconsin’s side, ranking 62nd on KenPom in defensive efficiency. Both teams are tremendous at the free throw line, each ranking in the top-12 in the country in free throw percentage. That should be crucial throughout the game, but even more so in a tournament setting where fouling late is a more prominent strategy than just letting the game run out.
The Badgers in particular have been a good over bet this season, going 20-12 to the over, mostly due to pace and defense. Both of these teams average over 83 points per game, and I think we should see some fireworks on Friday afternoon.
