The 48-17 Spurs are hosting the 40-26 Nuggets tonight in a pivotal Western Conference matchup between the second and fifth seeds. The Spurs have listed Victor Wembanyama and Harrison Barnes as Questionable. The Nuggets have not yet submitted their injury report.
The Spurs are 5.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total for this game set at 238.5 points.
Spurs vs. Nuggets prediction, preview
San Antonio is officially a problem. They’re riding a five game win streak, and their last 10 games boast 121.6 OFFRTG and 110.1 DEFRTG. The way the Spurs have been getting wins this season is consistent. They play fast enough to create early advantages, but not in a sloppy way. They’re putting up 117.6 OFFRTG on the season, which is a top five mark in the league. The Spurs are putting up 39.9 threes in their last 10 and hitting for 40.9%. Their defense is even cleaner due to the luxury of having Wembanyama on this team. Their perimeter defenders get to pressure up for free with the DPOY sitting behind them ready to erase mistakes. Wembanyama is Questionable tonight, and if he’s ultimately ruled out, it would be a big blow to the Spurs’ chances of limiting Nikola Jokic tonight. Wembanyama’s status has a huge effect on the Spurs’ entire defensive geometry; they’re 10-4 without him, so they’re still an excellent team, but he really takes them to another level. And we also can’t ignore the production of this team’s back court, with Stephon Castle and De’Aaron Fox. Castle has taken a leap in his second season after just winning ROTY; he’s averaging 16.4 PPG and 6.9 APG while playing elite defense. Fox also appears to have settled into things in his second season with the Spurs, finding a healthy groove with 19 PPG and 6.3 APG while shooting 49.1% from the field.
Denver is still Denver, but they play slower. They rely on winning the decision-making battle, which makes sense considering they’re spearheaded by the best floor general in the league. Jokic is the All-Seeing Eye and is propelling this team to a monstrous 120.3 OFFRTG, first in the NBA, despite missing some lethal cutters such as Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson. They get elite shots due to Jokic’s vision and gravity, and it certainly helps to have Jamal Murray help bail them out of late clock situations. Murray has been having a career-best season, averaging 25.5 PPG and 7.1 APG while shooting 48.3% from the field; all career-high marks. Unfortunately, Denver’s defense is their soft spot, allowing 38.12 opponent 3PA per game, so teams can definitely get hot against them at the wrong times. The Nuggets are on the second leg of a back to back after smoking the Rockets 129-93.
Spurs vs. Nuggets pick, best bet
Best Bet: SA Spurs -6.5 (-108)
Despite Wembanyama’s Questionable tag, I’m comfortable betting on the Spurs tonight due to the Nuggets playing the second half of a back to back on an away trip. The Spurs beat the Nuggets 139-136 in their last contest even without Wembanyama, so it’s reasonable to assume that Denver will struggle to close this one out given the context of this matchup.
