The Big East Tournament rolls on tonight with another can’t-miss matchup at MSG. #10 Xavier (14-17, 6-14) has had a lackluster first season under head coach Rick Pitino. The new-look Musketeers will have an opportunity to turn their season around this evening vs. #7 Marquette (12-19, 7-13). Despite a terrible start to the year, the Golden Eagles have looked much improved over the past month. Now, Shaka Smart’s crew will hope to keep the momentum going in the Big Apple.
Marquette enters as 3.5-point favorites (-115) over Xavier. The total is set at 156.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for tonight’s game between the Musketeers and the Golden Eagles.
Xavier vs. Marquette prediction, preview
In a conference that prides itself on hard-nosed defense, Xavier has not been up to par. X has recorded a 109.0 adjusted defensive efficiency, ahead of only Providence among all Big East schools. To make matters worse, the team has allowed 63.6 assists per field goal made, sixth-worst in college basketball. Unsurprisingly, the Musketeers have a conference-worst -2.3 net rating on the year. As a unit, their 80.0 points allowed per game ranks 332nd out of 365 Division I programs.
Granted, things are looking a bit better on the other end of the court. Xavier has an adjusted offensive efficiency of 116.7, 72nd-best in the nation. In addition, the school paces all Big East programs with a 36.5% three-point percentage. Tre Carroll is a name to watch tonight. The forward is among the conference’s leading scorers with 18.0 points per game on 51/35/71 shooting splits. However, he’s currently questionable to take the court due to a hip injury.
Stretch-five Jovan Milicevic could cause some issues for Marquette tonight. The big man is putting up 12.3 points and 4.0 rebounds per game while shooting 43.4% from three-point range. That level of floor spacing could hinder a vulnerable Golden Eagles front court. Should Carroll miss this one, expect more touches for guards Malik Moore and Roddie Anderson.
For Marquette, it’s been a solid few weeks. Despite an awful start to conference play, this group has punched above its weight class recently. That was capped off by a shocking 68-62 upset of #6 UConn on Saturday. The Golden Eagles come into this one with three wins over their last four games. Even the team’s defeats have been fairly competitive; four of their last five losses have been by single-digits. That includes matchups with quality clubs such as Villanova and #13 St. John’s.
What’s been the biggest difference for Marquette as of late? An ability to slow down the opposition. The Golden Eagles have posted an impressive 102.3 adjusted defensive efficiency, 46th-best in college basketball. None of their last five opponents, including the Huskies and Johnnies, have scored more than 70 points. As far as offense, MU will lean heavily on a dynamic back court. The tandem of Nigel James (16.4 PPG) and Chase Ross (14.2 PPG) can take over at any given moment. Getting big men Royce Parham and Ben Gold involved will be crucial.
Xavier vs. Marquette pick, best bet
In a battle between two evenly-matched squads, there’s probably more value on the underdog. After all, this is a neutral site game on the East Coast; neither fanbase should make a major difference tonight. However, a more experienced Marquette roster is no stranger to the bright lights of Madison Square Garden. The uncertain health of Carroll also gives me pause when it comes to backing Xavier. The Golden Eagles, with two of the three best players on the floor, should have enough at their disposal for a win.
