The Indian Wells Open is on to the Round of 16. One of the biggest matches of the day sees World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz face World No. 13 Casper Ruud. The match is expected to begin around 4:20. p.m. ET.
Alcaraz is -1200 on the moneyline, while Ruud is +830. This is my best bet to target on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Alcaraz vs. Ruud match.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Casper Ruud Preview
The best tennis player in the world is looking to win another Indian Wells Open title. Alcaraz won back-to-back Indian Wells Opens in 2023 and 2024 before losing in the semifinals last year. Alcaraz plays great at this venue and will be eager to win a third title in four years. He had to come from behind in the Round of 32, after Arthur Rinderknech stole the first set. However, Alcaraz dominated the next two sets, winning 6-3 and 6-2. On his best day, Carlos Alcaraz is the best player in the world. There is nothing to really fault Alcaraz on, and everything that can be said about his greatness has already been said. He seems to be on a war path this season to further assert his greatness. Casper Ruud is the next man in his way.
Casper Ruud is a great player who has never been able to break through to that elite tier. Ruud reached as high as No. 2 in the world in 2022, before Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner took over the sport. He has still been a top-15 player for most of this decade. However, Ruud has never won a major, despite making three Grand Slam finals. He also only has one ATP 1000 title in his career. Ruud has never performed great at Indian Wells, with one quarterfinal appearance being his best-ever finish here. Last year, he was knocked out in his first match of the tournament against Marcos Giron. If Ruud could pull off this upset over Alcaraz to move on to the quarterfinals at Indian Wells, it would be one of the biggest wins of his career.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Casper Ruud Pick, Best Bet
My best bet for this match is for Carlos Alcaraz to win by a score of two sets to one. Alcaraz can lack focus at times in matches like this, where he is the clearly superior player. While Jannik Sinner is more of a terminator against lesser competition, Alcaraz often coasts through these early rounds and saves his best stuff for the final couple of rounds. It seems a bit unfair to refer to the No. 13 player in the world as a clearly superior player, but it’s just a fact. Alcaraz is 5-1 all-time against Ruud. However, Ruud has given him decent matches several times over the years.
Casper Ruud’s one win over Alcaraz came in the Round Robin stage of the 2024 ATP Finals. While it was a great win for Ruud, it was much different than a setting like this at Indian Wells. However, in the 2025 Tokyo semifinals, the last time these two faced off, Ruud stole the first set before Alcaraz came surging back to win. That is what just happened to Alcaraz in his last match against Arthur Rinderknech, and it could happen again here. Ruud has the skill to steal a set away from Alcaraz, but in a three-set battle, it’s hard to bet against Alcaraz. Casper Ruud has won at least one set in three of his past four matchups against Carlos Alcaraz, and I’ll back him to do it again here, albeit in a losing effort.
