We survived the Monday blues yesterday, and as a treat, we get a big 11-game slate on deck for Tuesday night’s NBA action. There are a couple of excellent matchups on the board, but the contest between the Toronto Raptors and Houston Rockets should draw plenty of attention as these inter-conference foes go at it in H-Town. Moreover, both are virtual locks to make the postseason, so this should be a good one.
Here’s a Raptors vs. Rockets prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s game.
Raptors vs. Rockets prediction, preview
Toronto Raptors
With a 36-27 record, the Raptors are firmly planted at the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference as things currently stand. The last few games have seen a slight skid after dropping contests to the Thunder, Spurs, Knicks and Timberwolves, but look at the schedule they’ve played. Plus, they bounced back in a big way with a 30-point statement win over the Mavericks last time out.
With a NETRTG of +2.0, Toronto sits 12th among all teams while playing at the 21st-ranked pace. Despite a handful of star-level talents on offense, this remains a defense-first roster that allows 111.7 PPG to opponents, eighth-fewest, also producing the sixth-best DEFRTG. The Raptors are genuinely disruptive on that end of the floor, producing the fourth-most opponent turnovers to make up for what’s been a struggle on the glass all season with just 42.6 boards a night. On offense, they’re posting only 113.7 PPG with average efficiency of a 47.4% FG% and a 34.6% 3P%. However, the Raptors are fourth in assists per game with 29.1 as well as third in AST/TO ratio, also leading the NBA in fastbreak points while sitting sixth in points in the paint.
Toronto is led by Scottie Barnes, who produces 18.9 points with a team-high 7.9 rebounds plus 5.4 assists per game. Brandon Ingram remains the leading scorer with 21.7 PPG, while RJ Barrett provides additional punch with 18.6 PPG alongside Immanuel Quickley and his 17.3 points and 6.2 assists in the backcourt. The frontcourt may be missing a couple of key contributors tonight though with Collin Murray-Boyles (thumb) already ruled out and Jakob Poeltl (illness) questionable.
Houston Rockets
Public opinion on the Rockets as a contender may sour before long given their inability to string together a consistent run of form in recent weeks. They’re 39-24 but have dropped contests to the Heat, an undermanned Warriors team, and the Spurs with their only wins over the last five coming over the Trail Blazers and Wizards. Tonight’s a chance to bounce back, but there are serious concerns mounting ahead of playoff time.
Houston sits sixth in NETRTG at +4.9 and plays at the 29th-ranked pace. Much like the Raptors, the Rockets lean on a defense-first mentality that has them giving up just 109.9 PPG to opponents, fourth-fewest. While not forcing as many turnovers, they are dominant on the glass with an NBA-best 48.2 rebounds a game and create plenty of extra possessions through strength on the offensive boards. This team does fall all the way to 20th in PPG with 114.6, but they produce the eighth-best OFFRTG in turn. While averaging only 24.7 assists a game with the third-worst AST/TO ratio at 1.597, Houston has the ninth-best FG% at 47.6% and seventh-best 3P% at 36.8%.
The Rockets have a pair of All-Stars leading the way. Kevin Durant averages 26.1 PPG while shooting an unbelievable 51.0% from the field and 40.2% from three, also knocking down 88.9% of his free throws. Alperen Sengun’s scoring has taken a step back with just 20.9 points a night, but the big man continues to make an impact elsewhere with a team-leading 9.0 rebounds and 6.1 assists. Amen Thompson pitches in 17.6 points, 7.7 boards and 5.3 assists while frontcourt mate Jabari Smith Jr. averages 15.3 points and 6.9 rebounds. Tari Eason also makes an impact with 11.0 points and 6.3 boards, and young guard Reed Sheppard brings 13.6 points with a standout 39.6% 3P%.
Raptors vs. Rockets pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rockets as -4.5 home favorites tonight with -205 odds on the Moneyline. The Raptors are listed at +170 on the ML with the game total set at 220.5 combined points.
This is the kind of game that just screams to take the under. Neither offense is particularly inspiring for the most part and both teams have a handful of defensive talents in the frontcourt forward rotation who can lock down opponents. These rosters play very physical brands of basketball and tend to keep the pace pretty slow for the most part, so a dragging tempo is on the table for this contest as well. This should be a defensive slugfest and it’s tough to see a different outcome from that one.
The Rockets’ O/U record this season favors the under by a six-game margin, while the Raptors’ leans toward the under by a whopping 15 games as well. Yes, the line is set pretty low tonight at 220.5, but this could be a contest in which one side doesn’t even get to 100 points. With the way these sides like to play, I’m quite comfortable fading points anyways.
Top pick: Under 220.5 (-110)
