The Sweet 16 of the 2024 NCAA Women’s Tournament will tip off this afternoon with action out of Albany Regional 1. These Regional semifinal matchups will take place at MVP Arena in Albany, NY, and both games will air on ESPN. The winners will advance to face each other in the Elite Eight on Sunday.
Below, we’ll offer our analysis and picks for both games. All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
No. 3 Oregon State vs. No. 2 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. ET
Point spread: Notre Dame -3
Total: 132.5
Moneyline: ND -162, OSU +136
Notre Dame (28-6) is rolling into Albany on a 10-game win streak and easily dispatched of No. 15 Kent State and No. 7 Ole Miss last weekend to reach this point. The Fighting Irish managed to set the tone in both of those games early, holding both opponents to a combined 19 points in the first quarter. Sonia Citron has been the star of the show so far, averaging 23 points, eight rebounds, and five assists through the first two tourney games.
Oregon State (26-7) also rolled in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, downing both No. 14 Eastern Washington and No. 6 Nebraska by double digits. The Beavers were a brick wall on defense as they held both opponents to under 32% shooting in those respective contests. Raegen Beers shined in the first round matchup before Talia von Oelhoffen led the team in scoring in the second round.
Pick: Under 132.5
Expect a defensive struggle in this one as both teams will have to work extra hard for points. Defense has been the strength for the Beavers as they’ve held opponents to just 39.5% in eFG% and have limited them to just a 24.7% offensive rebounding rate. OSU also grind games down with a low possession per 40 minutes rate, so I’ll take the under here.
No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 1 South Carolina, 5 p.m. ET
Point spread: South Carolina -15.5
Total: 143.5
Moneyline: SCar -2100, Indiana +1100
South Carolina (34-0) has carried its year-long rampage into the Big Dance, obliterating both No. 16 Presbyterian and No. 8 North Carolina to make it back to the Sweet 16. 99 points was the combined margin of victory through the weekend as the Gamecocks’ first half total in both games ended up being higher than their opponents’ final score. What’s scary is that they did this even with Kamilla Cardoso serving a one-game suspension in round one, as numerous players like Ashlyn Watkins stepped up and kept the machine rolling.
Indiana (26-5) is back in the Sweet 16 for the third time in four years, knocking off No. 13 Fairfield and No. 5 Oklahoma last weekend to reach this point. The Hoosiers were actually trailing the Sooners by four with less than three minutes to go in their second-round matchup, only to pull ahead on a 10-0 run. Mackenzie Holmes and Sara Scalia continued to be a dynamic 1-2 punch for IU on offense and will have their work cut out in this contest.
Pick: South Carolina -15.5
South Carolina has been a wrecking machine and its hard to imagine anyone getting within the same zip code as Dawn Staley’s crew until the Final Four. The Gamecocks are either at or near the top of the country in most statistical categories and they can especially dominate on the glass this evening with the Hoosiers having just a 25.6% offensive rebounding rate. I’ll take SCar to roll and cover here.