Tipping off at 8:00 p.m. ET as part of tonight’s seven-game NBA slate, the Portland Trail Blazers are facing off with the Houston Rockets.
This is the fourth and final matchup between these two Western Conference opponents this season. The Rockets picked up a 140-116 win in the first matchup back in November but dropped back-to-back games against the Trail Blazers in January. These two games finished with a final score of 103-102 and 111-105 in Portland’s favor.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s game, the Rockets are 6.5-point favorites and hold -238 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Trail Blazers are +195 underdogs with the game total set at 218.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Friday night matchup.
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets Preview
The Portland Trail Blazers have climbed to 10th place in the Western Conference with a 30-33 record on the season. They are coming off a 122-114 win over the Grizzlies on Wednesday, and have won seven of their last 12. On the season, the Trail Blazers have gone 33-30 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 34 of their 63 games played.
Deni Avdija headlines the production for the Trail Blazers, earning an All-Star appearance with averages of 24.4 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 6.6 assists. However, Avdija is considered doubtful for tonight’s matchup due to lower back injury management. Shaedon Sharpe, Hansen Yang, Caleb Love, and Damian Lillard have been ruled out, while Kris Murray is listed as questionable with an illness. Jerami Grant adds 18.8 points and 3.6 rebounds, and Jrue Holiday pitches in 16.6 points, 6.3 assists, and 4.6 rebounds. Toumani Camara, Scoot Henderson, and Donovan Clingan also play key roles in the rotation.
The Trail Blazers are scoring 115.3 points per game, which ranks 16th in the league. They also rank 22nd in offensive rating, 28th in field goal percentage, 29th in three-point percentage, and eighth in pace. Defensively, teams are scoring 118.3 points per game against Portland, which ranks 24th in the NBA. They also rank 20th in defensive rating, 22nd in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 21st in opponents’ three-point percentage.
The Houston Rockets enter with a 38-23 record on the season and sit in fourth place in the Western Conference. This will be the second night of a back-to-back after suffering a tough 115-113 overtime loss to the Warriors last night. On the season, the Rockets have gone 27-34 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 34 of their 61 games played.
Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams remain sidelined with their long-term injuries. Jae’Sean Tate is recovering from an MCL sprain in his right knee, while Jabari Smith Jr. and Amen Thompson are listed as questionable for tonight. Of the available bodies, Kevin Durant continues to headline the scoring for Houston, posting averages of 26.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 4.5 assists. Alperen Sengun has further progressed in his development this season, adding 20.4 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 6.3 assists. Reed Sheppard and Tari Eason each also continue on their proper developmental path, while Dorian Finney-Smith and Clint Capela also play key roles in the rotation.
As a team, the Rockets are averaging 114.7 points per game, which ranks 20th in the NBA. They rank seventh in offensive rating, 10th in field-goal percentage, sixth in three-point percentage and 29th in pace. Defensively, opponents are scoring the third-fewest points per game against Houston at 109.5 per contest. The Rockets also rank fifth in defensive rating, sixth in opponent field-goal percentage, fifth in opponent three-point percentage, and they block shots at the third-best rate in the league.
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets Prediction, Best Bet
Both of these teams have some offensive concerns, and my lean is toward the under in this game. But I am backing the Trail Blazers to cover the +6.5-point spread in this matchup.
The Rockets are just 10-18 against the spread at home this season and 10-17 against the spread as a home favorite. Kevin Durant’s addition has helped, but the Rockets still struggle in their clutch time offense and in putting inferior teams away. Houston holds just a 47.1% winning percentage in clutch games this year, which ranks 19th in the NBA.
Portland is 5-4 against the spread with a rest advantage, and 33-30 on the season. The Rockets produced a convincing 140-116 win in the first matchup between these two teams. But plenty has changed on both sides since this November game. The Trail Blazers picked up back-to-back outright victories against the Rockets in their two previous games, in which they proved capable of matching their physicality and toughness.
Not having Deni Avdija is a huge loss for this Portland team. But the organization has been building up an identity as a scrappy team that plays hard regardless of who is on the floor. The Warriors led the Rockets for 76% of the matchup in last night’s game, outscoring them in the paint and going toe-to-toe in the rebounding battle. Expect the Trail Blazers to bring a similar level of interior impact, with Donovan Clingan set to be ready for the challenge of Houston’s interior physicality.
Given the Rockets’ struggles to put inferior teams away and the spirit we have seen from this youthful Portland squad, expect this matchup to remain competitive. Count on tired legs to be a factor from Houston’s perspective and for the Trail Blazers to take advantage of this. The 6.5-point spread feels too significant based on the current circumstances of this matchup and the past results between these two teams. Count on the Trail Blazers being ready for this challenge and for this matchup to go down to the wire, well within this points margin.
