The Arnold Palmer Invitational is the next stop on the PGA TOUR calendar as some of the best players in the world head to Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida.
This is a look at the best first-round leader bets to make for the event on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Arnold Palmer Invitational: First Round Leader Picks
The Arnold Palmer Invitational is being played at Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida. Bay Hill is a par-72 course, which ranges 7,466 yards. The course is one of the toughest on TOUR, ranking sixth among the most difficult annual stops on the season calendar. This is a limited-field event with the top 50 and ties making it to the weekend. There are 28 of the top 30 players in the world in the field for this tournament, including World No. 1 and two-time API champion Scottie Scheffler. Justin Thomas is also making his 2026 PGA TOUR debut in this tournament. Russell Henley is the defending champion.
The players to target for this tournament need to fit a certain criteria. The first-round leader will be someone who plays well in Florida against difficult fields. They will need to drive the ball well, hit the green from 200+ yards out and score well on Par 5s. If they putt well on Bermuda grass as well, that is a big added bonus.
Rory McIlroy FRL (+2050)
Rory McIlroy is searching for his first win on the PGA TOUR this season. He has only played in two events so far, finishing T-14 at Pebble Beach and T-2 last time out at The Genesis Invitational. McIlroy will be happy to be back in Florida for the API. He has always been excellent at this event. In his 11 career starts at Bay Hill, he has never finished worse than T-27. In those 11 starts, he has six Top 10s, four Top 5s, a runner-up finish and a win in 2018. McIlroy is the second-best player on the PGA TOUR and this course is a perfect fit for his game. So, at odds of over 20/1, it is worth a bet on McIlroy to lead after the opening round.
McIlroy leads the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green this season. He struggled to putt out west, but he will be much more comfortable on a Bermuda putting surface in Florida weather. McIlroy has the incredible length needed to succeed at Bay Hill, in addition to a sharp iron game. He ranks second in scoring average this season, behind only Scottie Scheffler. It will be tough for McIlroy to beat Scheffler over the course of the weekend, but Scheffler has really struggled in opening rounds this season. That makes McIlroy the man to beat on Thursday.
Russell Henley FRL (+3600)
Russell Henley is having a nice start to 2026 after a great 2025 season. Henley had a disastrous first round at the Genesis, which derailed his tournament. However, in his other three starts this year, he has three top-20 finishes. In all three of those tournaments, Henley shot 66 or better in the opening round. Henley has also been fantastic at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in recent years. He is the defending champion and finished T-4 in 2024.
Henley doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, which is important at Bay Hill. He isn’t the longest off the tee, but he will keep his drives straight and get in good positions to use his world-class wedge game. Once he gets on the green, Henley can flex why he is one of the best putters on the PGA TOUR. Particularly when it comes to one round, like with this bet, the putter is so valuable. If Henley gets red-hot and rolls a few long putts in, he could storm out to an early lead at Bay Hill.
