By all measures, the second season of Unrivaled has been a success. From sold-out arenas in Miami and Philadelphia to a marquee one-on-one tournament ultimately won by Chelsea Gray to Dominique Malonga’s thunderous jams, this Unrivaled season helped raise the profile of women’s basketball in the national and global conscience.
The regular season will come to an end this afternoon, with all eight teams set to take the court at Sephora Arena before the playoffs begin tomorrow at the same venue. The two eliminated teams, the Hive and the Lunar Owls, will be the first teams to take the court at 10 a.m. ET.
The Hive are 1.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-125 on the Moneyline), while the Lunar Owls are -105 underdogs. The game total is set at 140.5 points. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s consolation contest and offer a prediction.
Hive vs. Lunar Owls Preview
The Hive could’ve been more competitive, but they’ve dealt with plenty of roster turnover, as Azura Stevens has played just two games since being acquired from Rose BC in the first in-season trade in league history. Ezi Magbegor has also missed some time with a leg injury, limiting the Hive’s center depth. They still have plenty of talent, as Kelsey Mitchell and Sonia Citron were both WNBA All-Stars this season, but their roster volatility — and Citron’s surprisingly poor three-point shooting — has done them in, as they are just 4-9 with the league’s worst point differential.
The Lunar Owls’ disappointing performance was less of a surprise, given that they’ve been without their leader and league co-founder Napheesa Collier the entire season after she underwent bilateral ankle surgery during the offseason. Unlike the Hive, they don’t have any All-WNBA honorees from the past season, and they, too, dealt with some injuries, with Skylar Diggins missing the first three games of the season due to a leg issue. Ultimately, despite Marina Mabrey’s breakout performances, they couldn’t overcome Diggins’ poor shooting, as they have just a 3-10 record entering the season finale.
Hive vs. Lunar Owls Pick
Unsurprisingly, the teams rank last and second-to-last in points per game, with the Hive scoring just 66.5 points per game and the Lunar Owls scoring 68.0 points per game. But while the Hive have compounded their issues by also rebounding at the league’s worst rate, the Lunar Owls have at least been competitive on the boards, snagging the fourth-most, with Aaliyah Edwards leading the league and Mabrey ranking 11th. The Lunar Owls also distribute the ball better than than Hive did, ranking fourth-to-last in assists per game while the Hive once again bring up the rear.
Defensively, though, the Hive could make up the edge. They rank fourth in the league in steals, averaging 1.0 more swipes per game than the Lunar Owls, and they also rank second in the league in blocks, averaging 1.0 more than the Lunar Owls. Individually, Citron and Magbegor rank 10th and 11th in blocks per game, respectively, and they collectively have averaged more blocks than the Lunar Owls’ best pair, Diggins and Rebecca Allen. The Lunar Owls have also been incredibly indisciplined, ranking dead last in turnovers and fouls per game, which could be an issue against Citron, one of the league’s better free-throw shooters.
In three-on-three, transition play is critical, since every possession is faster-paced and more chaotic than it is in the WNBA. Plus, because there’s more space, shooting is paramount, and I just trust Citron and Mitchell — despite the former’s struggles — more than I do anybody on the Lunar Owls. Given her ultra-hot form, Mabrey could win the game for the Lunar Owls single-handedly, but Mitchell — an All-WNBA First Teamer this season — has a longer track record of high-level impact.
