The Champions League knockout phase has reached its second week of action, with the higher-seeded teams in the Knockout Playoffs now set to host the return legs of the two-match tie. It’ll be a nervy affair for some home sides, but they should have the edge in extra time and penalties if they make it that far.
Bayer Leverkusen shouldn’t require either; Die Werkself has a 2-0 lead over Greek side Olympiakos after winning in Athens last Wednesday, and it returns to Germany with its spot in the Round of 16 more or less secure. The second leg will kick off at 3 p.m. ET (9 p.m. local) near the eastern bank of the Rhine.
Leverkusen is a -130 favorite to win this return leg (-3500 to advance to the Round of 16) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Thrylos is +330 (+1100 to advance). There are +295 odds that the teams will draw this leg, which would send Die Werkself through.
Leverkusen vs. Olympiakos prediction, pick
The first leg was much more even than the final score might have indicated, as Olympiakos actually uncorked 13 shots to Leverkusen’s eight and attempted 14 more crosses. But the only stat that matters in the end is goals, and Thrylos wasn’t clinical at all, putting just one of those shots on target, its least effective shooting performance of the Champions League. Given the two-goal margin and the fact that Olympiakos’ road points during the League Phase came against bottom-feeder Kairat Almaty and already-eliminated Ajax, that sort of performance won’t cut it.
In theory, Thrylos has the talent to get the job done, even in Germany: individually, Ayoub El Kaabi ranks a solid 16th in expected goals, has 18 goals in all competitions this season, and had three goals to help Morocco advance to the AFCON final. His supporting pieces haven’t shown up this competition, as no other Olympiakos player even accounted for two expected goals, but El Kaabi has scored hat tricks in Europe before and could do it again. A heroic effort by the Moroccan would still require a strong defensive performance behind him, and Thrylos could just about do that: it ranks near the top of the Champions League in tackles, interceptions, and clearances while being among the best teams against set pieces. Its defense managed to hold off Die Werkself until the 60th minute and even took a brief lead before it was called back for offsides, only to be let down by the attack.
Leverkusen, has room to improve. It did all of its damage through one man in the first leg, with Patrik Schick putting three of his four shots on target and netting twice within the span of four minutes — once with his left foot and once with his head — to break Greek fans’ hearts. To be fair, both of the passes that led to the goals were brilliant, with Ernest Poku leading Schick through traffic and Álex Grimaldo delivering a perfect corner kick, but it wasn’t a particularly well-rounded performance overall. Die Werkself had some defensive lapses, winning just 36.8% of aerial duels and making only six interceptions to Olympiakos’ 10. It also wasn’t as clean with its distribution, especially on passes into the final third. Given the way it played last Wednesday, Leverkusen was pretty lucky to come away with a 2-0 result.
It already sat back and defended for much of the first leg, blocking six of Thrylos’ shots, and clinging to a two-goal lead, it could be wont to do the same. Kasper Hjulmand could be content to let his team sit back and continue to put itself in between Olympiakos’ shooters and the goal. In what could be a pretty defensive affair, I’ll back Leverkusen’s best defender, Grimaldo, to do his thing in a low-scoring win or draw. He’s recorded at least two tackles in three of his team’s last four Champions League matches.
