The 2026 Winter Olympics keep rolling in Milan, Italy on Thursday as the women’s hockey tournament reaches its pinnacle. The United States has dominated the competition throughout the schedule and now gets a date with Canada, setting up the latest edition of this bitter North American rivalry — one of the best in the sport at that. Which nation will come out ahead with a gold medal after the dust settles?
For those looking to get in on the betting action, look no further. Below, we’ll hit a preview, prediction and best bet for Thursday’s Olympic matchup between the United States and Canada in the Gold Medal Game.
United States vs. Canada prediction, preview
For those looking to get up to speed, here’s a crash course. The American and Canadian national teams have met in seven of eight Winter Olympics and are practically guaranteed to match up in any international tournament they both qualify for. Women’s hockey was introduced during the 1998 Winter Games as the United States took the first-ever gold medal matchup between the sides on the Olympic stage. The Canadians proceeded to rattle off four consecutive gold medals between 2002 and 2014 after that, though, with the USA falling short as a silver medalist in three of those four tournament runs. The tide finally shifted in 2018 when the Americans beat Canada for gold, but the Canadians got their revenge by taking the top spot on the podium once more in 2022. After meeting in so many tournament finals, it’s no wonder that these teams developed a hatred for one another.
Now, the latest edition of the Winter Olympics will once again pit the rivals against each other for all the glory.
Across their six games of this tournament, the United States has scored 31 goals, the most of any team, giving up just one to opponents. The Americans have recorded a tournament-best 259 SOG, allowing only 95 to opposing sides in the meantime. A 5-0 win over Canada in the Preliminaries before a 6-0 drubbing of Italy and 5-0 victory over Sweden have put the USA’s ability to beat the best on display as always. Caroline Harvey’s nine points are a team and tournament-high, while Hannah Bilka, Laila Edwards, Megan Keller and Abbey Murphy have seven apiece as well (with Bilka’s four goals leading the competition). In the net, Aerin Frankel has played like a woman possessed, recording a tournament-leading .985 SV% and 0.25 GAA. Yes, those are real numbers.
The Canadians are no slouches, though. Their 21 goals rank second among all teams, as do their 221 SOG. They’ve been hot on the power play with a competition-high 36.84% PP% in 19 attempts, too. Defensively, it’s nearly impossible to match the USA; still, Canada has conceded eight goals (third-fewest) and 94 SOG to opponents (a tournament-low). This roster plays two-way hockey and is simply still a force to be reckoned with. Daryl Watts’ eight points are the best of any Canadian Skater, followed by Sarah Fillier with six points. After her, Julia Gosling has five points while captain Marie-Philip Poulin notably has four points despite missing a pair of games. Between the posts, Ann-Renee Desbiens holds a .901 SV% and 1.81 GAA, but Emerance Maschmeyer could start instead in this game with a .957 SV% and 0.47 GAA as well.
United States vs. Canada pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the United States is a -2.5 favorite on the puck line with -485 odds of an outright win. Canada holds +370 odds on the Moneyline with the game total set at 5.5 combined goals.
It is certainly worth noting that Canadian captain Marie-Philip Poulin didn’t play in the first game against the Americans due to injury, and she’s back on the ice now. With the rivalry in focus thanks the history between these teams and additional stakes up for grabs even beyond the medal, this will surely be a heated contest with the best hockey from both sides.
Team Canada has a predicament on their hands in trying to decide on which netminder gets the starting call. However, it may not matter in the end. While the blue line has been quite solid at limiting opponent SOG, the USA presents an entirely different beast entirely. The Americans won the first matchup between these two by five goals and shut out their rival, and with a litany of offensive talent and the best goaltender in this tournament by a wide margin, they’re probably going to win big again. The Canadians can challenge, but a .985 SV% is simply absurd and there’s more firepower from the United States in front of Frankel to surely provide some goal support.
For what it’s worth, Team USA won gold at the 2025 IIHF tournament against a similar Canada team. With a young roster that deploys plenty of speed, the Americans should repeat that outcome against a more veteran-laden side that looked a tad slow in the last outing between these bitter rivals.
