The 2026 Winter Olympics continue in Milan, Italy on Wednesday. With the Playoff Quarterfinals taking place throughout the day, the final game of the day takes place at 3:10 p.m. EST stateside. This is the one American viewers will surely want to tune in for as the United States faces off against Sweden, making this a clash between two of the four favorites to win the gold medal.
For those looking to get in on the betting action, look no further. Below, we’ll hit a preview, prediction and best bet for Wednesday’s Olympic hockey matchup between the United States and Sweden in the Quarterfinal.
United States vs. Sweden prediction, preview
The United States entered the Winter Olympics with the second-best odds to win gold at +175. That line has shifted ever-so slightly to +200, but the Americans remain a force to be reckoned with and real challenger to Canada at the top. The USA went undefeated in Group C with a trio of wins — 5-1 over Latvia, 6-3 over Denmark and 5-1 against Germany. It’s entirely fair to use the word “dominance” to refer to this collection of talent. The United States has allowed the fewest SOG (63) and second-fewest goals against (five) with the fifth-most SOG themselves (122) and second-most goals for (16). With a 13.11% shooting percentage, they’re also the second-most efficient team at putting the puck in the net while also connecting on 42.86% of power plays.
Captain Auston Matthews (TOR) and Matthew Tkachuk (FLA) lead Team USA with five points apiece. There’s quite the support behind them, with Jack Eichel (VGK) and Quinn Hughes (MIN) at four points each, plus Brady Tkachuk (OTT), Brock Nelson (COL) and Jack Hughes (NJD) at three apiece. In the net, Connor Hellebuyck boasts a .952 SV% and 1.00 GAA with a pair of wins in his two appearances. The United States has plenty of stars. Now, it looks to earn some stripes.
On the opposite bench, Sweden entered these Winter Games with the third-best odds to win the gold medal. However, the Swedes didn’t even manage to secure a bye and had to fight through a qualifier contest against Latvia to make it this far. Granted, a 5-2 showing put many concerns to rest, and strong play in two group games did show the upside of this unit. Sweden opened the tournament with a 5-2 victory over Italy, setting an Olympic record with 60 SOG in that game. The group fell to Finland 4-1 in a stinker afterward, but bounced back in the final group game with a 5-3 win against Slovakia as well. Through four contests, Sweden has scored 16 goals (T-2nd) on a tournament-high 174 shots. The goalie play does raise a question or two though with 10 goals allowed (T-4th), even if the blue line has allowed just 99 SOG, fourth-fewest.
At an individual level, Raymond Lucas (DET) has blown past his fellow Swedes with eight points thanks to a tournament-best seven assists. Rasmus Dahlin (BUF) and Mika Zibanejad (NYR) are tied for second on the roster with five points each, while Adrian Kempe (LAK), Erik Karlsson (PIT) and William Nylander (TOR) have four points apiece. The situation between the pipes is up for debate, though. Filip Gustavsson began the tournament as the starting goalie but has an .889 SV% and 2.55 GAA. Jacob Markstrom took over for two games, including the elimination qualifier, and has logged a .925 SV% with a 2.01 GAA.
United States vs. Sweden pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the USA is a -1.5 favorite on the puck line with -230 odds of a straight-up win. Sweden holds +190 odds on the Moneyline with the game total set at 6.5 combined goals.
Betting splits show that 94% of Moneyline wagers favor the United States. That may be a bold move.
These teams haven’t met in the Winter Olympics yet, but they did clash in the NHL’s 4 Nations Face-Off last year with very similar rosters. In that contest, the Swedes actually emerged with a 2-1 victory despite being outshot 23-33 with a 13.6 percentage-point disparity in FOW%. The difference in that contest was that Sweden protected the puck with just 12 giveaways to 25 for the Americans. It’s worth mentioning that Matthew Tkachuk was injured in that outing, so take it with a slight grain of salt.
Will we get a repeat of that one? It’s tough to tell, but Sweden is the first team the United States will have faced in this competition that can truly keep up. The Swedes have no troubles at putting the puck on the net and scoring goals, and they’ve done a swell job at mostly limiting opposing chances. However, they must answer the glaring issue of the netminder. Gustavsson has been far superior to Markstrom in NHL competition, but the latter seems to have supplanted him in this tournament after starting in the previous elimination scenario. Will the Swedish decision makers lean on Markstrom again given his success through two games and the fact he saved 20-of-21 shot attempts by the Latvians in a do-or-die outing?
My gut says yes, they will. Risking another rough outing from Gustavsson could end in disaster, or begin in catastrophe to doom the team’s chances from the start. Banking on offense will be key to keeping up with the United States, especially since the chances of shutting the Americans down are so low. If Sweden comes out firing and can pressure their opponent’s half, there’s a chance the underdog can come out victorious. I like the Swedes at +1.5 in this one and would consider sprinkling the Moneyline just in case, but I do expect this to be a 3-2 victory for the USA.
