By any measure, the Miami Heat have been one of the NBA’s biggest success stories. Since their inception as a franchise prior to the 1988-89 season, the Heat have gone 1587-1436 — the league’s 11th-best over that span — making the playoffs 26 times in their 38 seasons. Miami has successfully navigated transitions between four distinct eras (Tim Hardaway and Alonzo Mourning in the 1990’s, Shaquille O’Neal and Dwyane Wade in the late 2000’s, Wade and LeBron James in the early 2010’s, and Jimmy Butler in the early 2020’s). The Heat have three titles from seven Finals appearances.
But Miami’s six-season playoff streak — the fourth-longest active streak in basketball — looks to be at risk of coming to an end in 2025-26. The Heat have had several players miss time with injuries, and though they currently sit eighth at 29-27, the fast-charging Charlotte Hornets are just two and a half games behind. Miami still looks likely to secure at least a spot in the Play-In Tournament — the Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks are four and a half games back — but it might have to win two Play-In games if the Hornets stay hot.
DraftKings Sportsbook has the Heat at -210 to make the playoffs and +170 to miss.
While Miami still has the inside track, it can’t afford to slip up much, as a road game against Charlotte or a healthy Orlando Magic team in the Play-In Tournament seems like an unappealing proposition. Thankfully, the schedule should do the Heat some favors: they have just the 24th-ranked remaining strength of schedule, per Tankathon, and they have six combined games remaining against the Washington Wizards, Indiana Pacers, and Brooklyn Nets — all of whom will likely tank for better draft position towards the end of the season.
The Heat have been strong defensively, ranking fourth in defensive rating, the 17th time in 18 seasons under Erik Spoelstra that Miami has had an above-average defene. The issue is the Heat’s offense: they rank just 17th in offensive rating and 21st in true shooting percentage. Tyler Herro’s eventual return should help with that: even though Miami has been worse with the one-time All-Star on the court this season, he improved the team’s offense by 6.4 points per 100 possessions in his 77 games in 2024-25, a discrepancy nearly as large as that between the first-place Denver Nuggets and 14th-place Phoenix Suns.
The question is how long Herro will remain out. He missed the first 17 games of the season while recovering from ankle surgery, played six games before sustaining a bruised toe, then played another five games before suffering a rib contusion. Though Spoelstra has repeatedly expressed confidence that he’ll play before the end of the season, he remains without a timetable for return. The murky timetable can’t be confidence-inducing for Heat fans, especially given the lack of margin for error.
If Miami does have to go on the road for two Play-In Tournament games, it does have the personnel to pick up the needed wins, with or without Herro. Andrew Wiggins has a history of playoff success, having helped the Golden State Warriors to a title in 2021-22, and Norman Powell is a champion with the 2018-19 Toronto Raptors. Jaime Jaquez Jr., a breakout star this season and potential Sixth Man of the Year, helped lead UCLA on a surprise run to the Final Four as a No. 11 seed in the 2021 tournament.
