As the college basketball season gets down to the wire with about a month left before March Madness begins, No. 5 Iowa State will travel to Fort Worth to battle TCU on Tuesday night.
Looking at the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, the Cyclones are 7.5-point road favorites with -325 odds on the Moneyline. The Horned Frogs are +260 as an underdog on the Moneyline while the total o/u is set at 147.5 points.
Below is my preview, pick and prediction for Tuesday’s Iowa State at TCU game.
Iowa State at TCU prediction, pick
Iowa State started its season on a heater, winning its first 16 games. However, the Cyclones picked up two consecutive losses on a road trip against Kansas and Cincinnati, marking their only two losses of the season. Iowa State hasn’t looked back since then, though, as it has now won five straight and jumped back into the top-five rankings.
The Cyclones have been known as a defensive team for most of coach T.J. Otzelberger’s tenure, but their offense has been coming on strong lately, ranking No. 10 in the KenPom rankings. Iowa State’s 85.9 points per game puts it at 21st in the country while it is top-10 in shooting percentage, as its 51.3% field-goal percentage ranks seventh. The Cyclones have been especially hot as of late, averaging 87 points on 53.6% shooting in their last five.
Milan Momcilovic continues to be one of the key reasons for the team’s offensive success, leading the Cyclones with 18.7 points a game and scoring at least 20 in four of his last six. Meanwhile, his 53.3% three-point percentage leads the country. Joshua Jefferson also pours in 17.2 points, 7.7 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game, while Tamin Lipsey rounds out Iowa State’s big three with 13.4 points, 5.4 assists and 2.4 steals a game. The ‘Clones also get key minutes from transfer forward Blake Buchanan, freshman Killyan Toure and sixth man Nate Heise.
The TCU Horned Frogs didn’t get off to quite as strong of a start as their Cyclone counterparts, however they did pick up a big early-season win over then-No. 10 Florida, the Frogs’ lone AP win of the season so far. TCU also took things down to the wire against then-No. 6 Michigan in the nonconference slate, but once Big 12 play started, things got dicey for the Horned Frogs. The team started conference play dropping four of its first five games, and it has lost two of its last three as well to place the Frogs firmly in the middle of the standings.
Jamie Dixon’s squad also prefers to set the tone defensively, ranking 36th in the KenPom rankings. The Horned Frogs allow 72 points a game on 44.1% shooting, however that solid defense has taken a hit lately. In its last five games, TCU has allowed teams to score 80.6 points a game on 49.2% shooting. In Big 12 play overall, that number goes up to 81.4 points a game.
The Horned Frogs have been led this season by forwards David Punch and Xavier Edmonds. Punch leads the team with 14.3 points, 7.2 rebounds and 2.1 blocks a game while Edmonds is also in double figures at 12.7 points a game, along with 5.8 rebounds. Transfer guard Brock Harding also brings it defensively with his team-high 1.7 steals a game, adding 6.1 assists as well. TCU also looks to Jayden Pierre, Liutauras Lelevicius and Micah Robinson to play crucial roles.
Iowa State at TCU Best Bet
The Cyclones will head back on the road looking to keep their five-game win streak going, and they should have no issue covering this 7.5-point spread against TCU.
The Horned Frogs have had troubles against AP-ranked teams this season, going 1-5 against them this season, with four of those five losses coming to Big 12 teams, falling by an average margin of eight in those four games. In comparison, Iowa State has blown past its competition lately, downing three of its last five opponents by 30 or more points, with TCU falling to one of those teams and barely sneaking by another.
TCU should have a tough time slowing down a Cyclone offense that’s on fire right now, and with the Horned Frogs’ offense struggling in its own right, ranking 105 on KenPom and averaging 76 points a game in its last five, TCU should struggle to keep up. Iowa State should blow by the Frogs.
