Drake Maye quarterbacked the New England Patriots to an incredibly impressive season, finishing second in the MVP race by the thinnest of margins. In Super Bowl 60 on Sunday, he faces off against the Seattle Seahawks and Sam Darnold, who proved he’s capable of leading an elite team while under center despite questions surrounding his play.
Seattle enters as a 4.5-point favorite with the game total set at 45.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
These two quarterbacks can both put up numbers, but they face elite defenses in this matchup. How many passing yards will Drake Maye and Sam Darnold combine for?
Combined passing prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Throughout the regular season, Drake Maye proved on a weekly basis why he deserved to be the No. 3 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Despite having limited starting experience as a second-year quarterback, he stepped under center and led the Patriots to a very impressive campaign and this Super Bowl berth. He threw for 4.394 yards and 31 touchdowns, leading the NFL in completion percentage while tossing just eight interceptions. Beyond that, Maye aired the ball out plenty with the 12th-most attempts and third-highest aDOT of all quarterbacks. His average yards per game during the regular season? 258.5, fourth-most of any passer.
On the opposite side, Sam Darnold arrived in Seattle with some questions surrounding his abilities as a starting quarterback. He put forth a fantastic year with the Minnesota Vikings last season, but whether that play would continue after heading to a new team outside of Kevin O’Connell’s system felt like an unknown. Thankfully for the journeyman, Darnold hit his stride quickly under Mike Macdonald and offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, forming an instant connection with superstar wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba as well. The signal caller finished the regular season with 4,048 yards, 25 touchdowns and 14 picks, ranking 14th in aDOT with the fourth-most big-time throws. With 238.1 passing yards per game, he also ranked 10th in that category, as well.
So, the questions to answer come Sunday are whether both quarterbacks can perform up to par, as well as how many passing yards they’ll combine for in Super Bowl 60.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, bettors can find a market for combined passing yards under the passing props section. The default value sits at 475+ combined yards with +119 odds on that line.
During the regular season, these quarterbacks combined to average 496.6 passing yards per game. That would allow 475+ combined yards to cash, but the next-highest option of 500+ combined yards would fall short at +172 odds. While the value is good on both of those options with plus odds on each, it’s a much safer bet to go lower on Sunday.
While not the most exciting outcome, the reasoning behind that call is that both of these defenses are among the NFL’s elite. The Seahawks rank 11th in opponent passing yards allowed per game with 199.5, but that mark is driven upward by the fact opponents averaged the sixth-most pass attempts against them (likely while playing from behind in negative game scripts). Likewise, the Patriots allow 185.3 passing yards per game, eighth-fewest of any team. Both defenses have strong groups of pass rushers who can pressure the opposing quarterback, and the collection of talent in the secondaries feels almost obscene. Seattle boasts Devon Witherspoon and Nick Emmanwori (even if he’s playing through injury), while New England has Christian Gonzalez, Marcus Jones and Carlton Davis — all of whom rank 28th or better in coverage grade, per PFF.
With the pressure cranked up to 11 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California and excellent defenses on both sides, projecting a ton of passing yards feels almost irresponsible. Adding to that idea, both teams rank top-five in rush play percentage, and Maye hasn’t exactly looked stellar in the postseason with a declining completion percentage and just one outing of more than 179 passing yards.
All in all, it’s best to stick with a safer line of 450+ combined passing yards between he and Darnold. There should be some explosive throws for both players, but both defenses also rank near the top of the NFL in aDOT allowed to opponents and will look to keep passes short of the sticks. At -126 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, there’s perfectly fine value here.
