Determining which player will have the longest Next Gen distance run from scrimmage in the Super Bowl is difficult because both the Seahawks and Patriots have excellent rush defenses. Seattle posted the lowest EPA per carry while allowing a league-low 3.8 yards per carry. New England had the eighth-lowest EPA per carry and allowed 4.1 yards per carry.
Siding with volume is usually the way to go because all it takes is one — and the more the merrier. Kenneth Walker III carried 221 times during the regular season and should remain the bellcow with Zach Charbonnet injured. While his Rush EPA is -19.6, he had 33 explosive runs (10+ yards), the most in the field.
TreVeyon Henderson recorded 18 explosive plays on 180 carries, while Rhamondre Stevenson logged 15 on 130. But in the AFC Championship, Stevenson received 94% of the snaps compared to Henderson’s paltry 6%. I have a not-so-sneaking suspicion that Stevenson will once again garner the bulk of New England’s carries. However, Henderson’s -4.8 Rush EPA looks mighty fine compared to Stevenson’s -33.
Rashid Shaheed had a Rush EPA of 0.6, and he will be one of the fastest players on the field. But he only received nine carries with Seattle. Once again, volume matters.
Drake Maye had the best Rush EPA at 34.1 on a healthy 103 carries. Seattle doesn’t blitz often while playing a ton of zone; more often than not, eyes will be on Maye instead of the back of jerseys. That said, it’s not like Seattle completely omits man defense and blitzing. It is those situations, when the play breaks down and Maye scrambles, that afford the best chance of a long run.
