The biggest day of the American sports calendar has arrived. Order some buffalo wings and put some chips and dips on the table because Super Bowl 60 is this Sunday! To celebrate, DraftKings is bringing back the King of the End Zone promotion to close out the NFL season as the league crowns a champion.
Before the New England Patriots and Drake Maye take on the Seattle Seahawks and Sam Darnold, we’re taking a look at the top value picks on the market for this edition of King of the End Zone. Walk with us while we outline some strategies for the Super Bowl!
King of the End Zone value picks for Super Bowl 60
There are three basic considerations for King of the End Zone: the player’s likelihood of scoring a touchdown, the player’s likelihood of scoring a long touchdown, and how many other DraftKings users may have chosen that player. Long story short, you want someone with a decent shot to score from an extended distance, but if you’re hunting for a big payout of bonus bets, look for plays that are less chalky. That’s where these values come in.
Simply opt in and use the KOTEZ token on a single bet of at least $5 in a touchdown market — if that player scores the longest touchdown of Super Bowl 60, you win a share of $4 million in bonus bets.
Seahawks D/ST (+425 Anytime TD)
Let’s be clear about one thing. This game may be very, very ugly. Both teams bring elite defenses to the table (more on that later), setting the stage for what may be a defensive slugfest rather than high-scoring shootout. We’ll focus specifically on the Seahawks’ numbers here to start. Seattle finished the regular season ranked first in the NFL in DVOA, bringing the league’s No. 1 defense in the stat with a mark of -24.2%. For reference, lower numbers are better, and theirs was 4.9 percentage points better than the second-place Lions. Seattle’s 1.5 takeaways per game on defense also rank fifth-best of any team.
Why is that relevant, you may ask? Well, Patriots quarterback Drake Maye threw just eight interceptions in the regular season, but ranked 30th among all quarterbacks with 17 turnover-worthy plays, per PFF. He’s also has another five turnover-worthy plays in the postseason, tossing two picks in three games. Beyond that, he’s fumbled six times across that same sample, also notching eight fumbles in the regular season. Multiple turnovers feel like a distinct possibility for the second-year thrower as he enters the most important game of his life on the biggest stage possible.
Moreso, getting the Seahawks’ special teams in this anytime pick makes it even more appealing. They finished the regular season ranked second in special teams DVOA with a significant 4.2 percentage-point gap between their unit and the No. 3 group. Rashid Shaheed housed a combined three punts and kickoffs for a touchdown in 11 games with the team, plus Tory Horton ran a punt back for a score earlier in the regular season as well. The only downside? A touchdown on special teams means splitting the KOTEZ winnings with the bettors who took the returner (if they had a touchdown line available), but the Seattle D/ST remains a great value pick.
TreVeyon Henderson (+500 Anytime TD)
Again, we’re looking for players who could conceivably score the longest touchdown of the day. While TreVeyon Henderson’s workload has decreased in the postseason, he’s as electric a player with the ball in his hands as anyone else in the NFL.
The rookie halfback has been out-touched by veteran Rhamondre Stevenson in all three postseason games, with the latter taking 25 rush attempts to just three for Henderson in the AFC Championship Game. However, that may have been more of an aberration as a result of the blizzard-like conditions in Denver during that contest, especially since Henderson saw nine and 12 carries over the first two playoff games. In the regular season, he saw a total of 180 totes and ripped off a 10-yard gain or better on 18 of those, an explosive rush rate of 10% on the dot. Diving in a little bit more, Henderson had more carries of 20+ yards than 14 other halfbacks, and all but one of them (Stevenson) had somewhere between 31 and 143 more rush attempts than the rookie. Likewise, he finished the regular season tied for the fourth-most runs of 30+ yards and second-most runs of 40+ yards.
We’ll come full circle here as well. Henderson ripped off four runs of 60+ yards, more than any other NFL halfback even despite a limited workload. Enough said. If you’re looking for a potential game-breaking player as a value pick, Henderson is that guy.
Patriots D/ST (+500 Anytime TD)
Finally, we wrap up with the other defense here. The Patriots also have one of the NFL’s elite defenses in terms of takeaways, tying for fifth-most with 1.4 per game. We just saw how this unit can take over a playoff game, averaging a staggering 2.7 takeaways over their last three games as well. The same logic of the Seahawks D/ST pick applies to this one, especially given the recent form. New England also tallied three return touchdowns on special teams in the regular season, two of which came from Marcus Jones (who is also a standout defensive back).
Here’s the other factor that makes me look toward the Pats’ D/ST. They face Sam Darnold in this game, who steps under center for the Seahawks. Technically, it’s not his first Super Bowl appearance after making it as a backup for the 49ers three seasons ago. However, it’s surely his first start under these lights with the entire nation watching. That brings a ton of pressure, and while he’s played quality-to-elite football through the postseason thus far without even coughing up an interception, there’s a contingent who believes he’ll turn into a pumpkin given the environment. The Darnold Trust Meter has decreased over the last few days, and it’s truly tough to tell whether he’ll perform up to par here against an excellent secondary.
If the Darnold of old shows up, that could spell an interception return for the New England D/ST. Plus, they’ll likely be taken by fewer bettors than Seattle’s unit.
