The Sweet 16 of the 2024 NCAA Women’s Tournament will continue this evening with action out of Portland Regional 4. These Regional semifinal matchups will take place at the Moda Center in Portland, OR, and both games will air on ESPN. The winners will advance to face each other in the Elite Eight on Sunday.
Below, we’ll offer our analysis and picks for both games. All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
No. 3 NC State vs. No. 2 Stanford, 7:30 p.m. ET
Point spread: Stanford -4.5
Total: 134.5
Moneyline: Stanford -192, NC State +160
Stanford (30-5) cruised to a dominant win over No. 15 Norfolk State in round one before being tested by No. 7 Iowa State in an 87-81 overtime victory in round two last weekend. Down by one with 19 seconds left in OT, Brooke Demetre fired off the go-ahead three and then buried a pair of clutch free throws to give the Cardinal some cushion. Kiki Iriafen exploded for 41 points and 16 rebounds in that win, so keep an eye out for her.
NC State (29-6) conquered the Volunteer State last weekend, rolling No. 15 Chattanooga in the first round before gutting out a 79-72 win over No. 6 Tennessee in round two. The Wolfpack held the Lady Vols to just eight points in the second quarter and that gave them enough leeway to cruise for the rest of the contest. Aziaha James was the leading scorer in both contests for State.
Pick: NC State +4.5
This is a battle of two teams who have similar numbers up and down the stat sheet. Both teams are holding opponents to under 36% shooting for the year, so it should be a challenge for both offenses to catch fire in this one. I expect this to be a close battle that goes down to the wire, so I’ll take NC State to cover as an underdog.
No. 4 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 Texas, 10 p.m. ET
Point spread: Texas -5.5
Total: 142
Moneyline: Texas -250, Gonzaga +205
Texas (32-4) shelled No. 16 Drexel by 40 points in round one before downing future SEC rival No. 8 Alabama in an 11-point victory in round two. The Longhorns never trailed in their matchup against the Crimson Tide, holding them to just 33.9% shooting and keeping them at an arm’s length the entire contest. They got 21-point efforts from both Aaliyah Moore and Big 12 Co-Player of the Year Madison Booker in the second-round win.
Gonzaga (32-3) also handled its business in the first two rounds, blowing out No. 13 UC Irvine in round one before taking out No. 5 Utah in round two. The second quarter of the latter contest made the difference for the Bulldogs as they held the Utes to just eight points in the period, allowing them to take a comfortable lead the rest of the way. WCC Player of the Year Yvonne Ejim dropped a double-double with 17 points and 13 rebounds.
Pick: Gonzaga +5.5
Something’s got to give in this one as both teams have been super dominant with average margin of victories being over 20 points. Both squads have been able to control games on the glass as they are both ranked in the top 10 in total rebounding rate. Where the Bulldogs have a distinct advantage is from beyond the arc as they are shooting a nation-best 40.1% from three. Combine this with having somewhat of a regional advantage being just over five hours from Spokane and I think the Zags can cover here.