Texas A&M vs. Alabama College Basketball prediction, preview
The Aggies have been one of the surprise stories in the SEC this season. In a loaded conference, they were an afterthought to most, but have taken a hot start and continued to maintain that momentum all season. Texas A&M heads to Tuscaloosa on Wednesday night at 17-4 on the season, and riding a 7-0 ATS run. The Aggies are 4-2 in true road games, and even more impressive, are 4-1 SU/5-0 ATS as the underdog this season.
The largest underdog that Texas A&M has been this season was in Knoxville, catching double digits against the Vols. While that’s the game that the Aggies did wind up losing, they covered the game and it took multiple overtimes for Tennessee to prevail. The obvious look here would be to take the points with the team that sits atop the SEC rankings right? I’m not so sure.
Both of these teams rank in the top-25 in the country in adjusted tempo, with Bama playing at the fourth-fastest pace. The Crimson Tide also have the third-ranked offense in the nation, per KenPom. This should be a barnburner, and A&M could struggle to keep up at times against a squad that Nate Oats should have pretty motivated heading into this game.
The Tide went to Gainesville for a Sunday afternoon primetime game over the weekend and got completely embarrassed — falling by a score of 100-77. The spread in that game opened with Bama catching 7.5 points, and despite the ticket count piling up on the Tide, the number touched double digits at one point at some shops.
This game tells a similar story from a market perspective. Alabama opened laying 7.5 this time around, but despite over 60% of the tickets taking the points with the underdog, we’re out to 8.5 in this game (as of about 4pm ET). Oats has had his players ready to go coming off their last two losses, following them up with a 15-point win over Mississippi State and a 26-point win over Mizzouri.
I don’t want to take anything away from the Aggies, who are a good team, but Alabama should be ready to go in this spot. I like the Tide in a wire-to-wire win here. I’m comfortable laying the points for the game, but like another angle better. The double result (Halftime/Fulltime market on DraftKings Sportsbook) is priced at -140 for the Tide to lead at halftime and go on to win the game.
I think we see a very aggressive effort from Bama out of the gates, and go on to bounce-back win a win here.
