The Houston Rockets will face off with the Indiana Pacers as part of tonight’s four-game NBA slate.
These teams hold very different outlooks on the season. The Rockets still sit firmly in the contending category in a loaded Western Conference, while the Pacers bring up the rear in a weaker East. This marks the second and final time these two teams will face off this season. Houston produced a 126-119 victory in the first matchup, which took place on December 29th.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s game, the Rockets are 6.5-point favorites and hold -245 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Pacers are +200 underdogs with the game total set at 219.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Monday night matchup.
Pacers at Celtics Preview
The Indiana Pacers still play with admirable spunk at times, but lack the talent to compete this season. Tyrese Haliburton remains sidelined and recovering from his Achilles tear, changing the outlook for the entire offensive attack. This has led to the Pacers limping to a 13-36 record and remaining in last place in the Eastern Conference. Indiana has gone 25-24 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 30 of their 49 games.
Pascal Siakam has done his best to keep the team afloat and earned the fourth All-Star appearance of his career as a result. The former NBA Champion is averaging 23.8 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game on the season. Andrew Nembhard has stepped up as the primary point guard this season, posting averages of 17.6 points, 7.5 assists, and 3.0 rebounds per game. Bennedict Mathurin adds 17.5 points and 5.4 rebounds of his own, while Aaron Nesmith adds 13.8 points per game. T.J. McConnell, Jarace Walker, Jay Huff, and Quenton Jackson each play roles in the rotation. In addition to Haliburton, Obi Toppin will remain sidelined for the Pacers tonight.
The Pacers are averaging 110.7 points per game, which ranks 28th in the NBA. They rank dead last in offensive rating, 29th in team field goal percentage, 23rd in three-point percentage, and ninth in pace. Defensively, opponents are scoring 118.4 points per game, which ranks 25th in the league. Indiana also ranks 21st in defensive rating, 26th in opponents’ three-point percentage, and 27th in opponents’ rebounds allowed. On the positive side, the Pacers do a nice job defending the three-point line, ranking third in opponents’ three-point attempts allowed and opponents’ three-point percentage, while giving up the fewest average made three-pointers per game.
The Houston Rockets enter with a 30-17 record on the season, which slots them at fourth place in the Western Conference. They enter this matchup coming off back-to-back wins over the Mavericks and Hawks, and have won seven of their last nine games. On the season, Houston has gone 22-25 against the spread, and the game total has gone 20-26-1 to the over.under.
Kevin Durant has been ruled out for tonight’s game with an ankle injury, leaving the Rockets without their leading scorer at 26.2 points per game. Steven Adams has been ruled out for the season after undergoing ankle surgery, and Fred VanVleet remains sidelined from his offseason ACL tear. Alperen Sengun has scaled up his production this season, posting averages of 21.0 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 6.2 assists. Amen Thompson has also taken a leap forward with 18.2 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 5.5 assists. Jabari Smith Jr, Reed Sheppard, and Tari Eason have also impressed.
As a team, the Rockets are averaging 116.0 points per game, which ranks 17th in the NBA. They rank fifth in offensive rating, ninth in field goal percentage, seventh in three-point percentage, and 27th in pace. Defensively, opponents are scoring the fourth-fewest points per game against Houston at 109.9 per contest. The Rockets also rank fifth in defensive rating, fifth in opponents’ field goal percentage, fourth in opponents’ field goal percentage, and block shots at the fifth-best rate in the league.
Rockets at Pacers Prediction, Best Bet
There should be no arguments that the Houston Rockets are the better team in this matchup. But the Pacers deserve credit for playing them tough in the first matchup, which resulted 126-119 Rockets win, and Houston failing to cover the 12.5-point spread.
This result, along with the absence of Kevin Durant, has led to a 6.5-point spread tonight. It is also worth noting tonight’s matchup will take place in Indiana. While my lean is toward the Rockets covering this number, I am backing the game total to go under 219.5.
These teams had no trouble filling up the score sheet in the initial matchup, but the Pacers shot an uncharacteristic 50% from the floor and 53% on three-point attempts. The Rockets shot 59% from the floor as well, while Durant was responsible for 30 points. Expect his absence tonight to cause some major issues in Houston’s attack.
Durant was the score-first addition this team was missing, and he has allowed every other member of the roster to settle into their appropriate role. Without him on the floor, expect offense to be much more difficult to generate. Indiana will also have success cutting out three-point opportunities in their entirety, as they give up the fewest made three-pointers per game and the Rockets rank 29th in team three-point volume.
On the other side of the matchup, this is one of the league’s worst offenses going against one of the better defenses in the NBA. Indiana is tallying the third-fewest points at 110.7 per game, and ranks last in offensive rating. Houston is holding teams to the fourth-fewest points per game at 109.9 per contest, and ranks fifth in defensive rating. The Rockets have held opponents to 107 points or fewer in each of their past five games, including under 100 points in three of these.
The Pacers have strayed from their identity as an up-tempo team with Tyrese Haliburton as the engine of the offense. Houston ranks 27th in pace overall and will be content making this a defensive slugfest. Expect points to be difficult to come by on both sides of this matchup and for the total scoring to remain below the 219.5 game total.
