The Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs have dueled twice so far this season, with the series split at one game apiece thus far. Both matchups have provided some very fun hoops, and tonight’s rematch could provide another instant classic as Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun face off against Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox.
Here’s a Spurs vs. Rockets prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s game.
Spurs vs. Rockets prediction, preview
San Antonio Spurs
Entering tonight’s matchup, the Spurs are 31-15 after dropping a stinker back on Sunday to the lowly Pelicans. Washing off the remnants of that outing will be key, potentially lighting a fire under the team as they prepare to face a division rival.
At a glance, San Antonio sits fifth in NETRTG at +5.0 and 15th in pace. This team brings top-10 rankings in scoring and points allowed, producing 117.4 PPG (10th) while giving up 112.4 on the other end (seventh). The Spurs are excellent on the boards with 54.8 rebounds per game (eighth) and league-average with 26.0 assists (16th) and the 11th-ranked AST/TO ratio. There’s really not a glaring weakness other than a 34.9% three-point percentage for the squad, though that’s made up for by a solid 47.0% mark from the field overall and a 55.9% mark from two (seventh-best). San Antonio also limits turnovers well, averaging the fourth-fewest of any team.
Franchise player Victor Wembanyama leads the roster with 24.2 points, 11.1 rebounds and 2.7 blocks per game, even with his minutes essentially capped at around 30 a night. Co-star De’Aaron Fox posts 20.2 points with 6.0 assists while providing plenty of downhill rim pressure, and fellow guard Stephon Castle’s 7.0 assists are a team-best while pitching in 16.6 points. Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie, Harrison Barnes and Dylan Harper all provide double-digit scoring as well, so this is a deep roster with plenty of difference-making players who each fill unique roles.
Houston Rockets
After a rough patch to start the new year, the Rockets have largely settled back into the swing of things in recent weeks. They’ve won back-to-back outings now and are 5-1 across their last six games, bringing the team’s record to 28-176 on the campaign.
The Rockets have a NETRTG of +6.6, fourth in the league, they fall 28th in pace. Houston’s offense isn’t always pretty, but it produces 116.7 PPG (12th) with the seventh-best FG% and 3P% at 47.8% and 37.0%, respectively. However, this team ranks second-to-last in 3PA, instead favoring interior shots and second-chance opportunities following offensive rebounds, which it pulls down more of than any other franchise. The Rockets pace the NBA with 60.0 total rebounds per game, using the glass to create extra possessions and make up for a lack of standout playmaking. The defense remains one of the NBA’s strongest as well, allowing 110.5 PPG (fourth) and limiting opponent efficiency.
For Houston, superstar Kevin Durant averages 26.4 PPG and comes off three straight contests of 30+ points, a significant hot streak. Alperen Sengun paces the rotation with 9.0 rebounds, 6.4 assists and 1.5 steals while scoring 21.5 PPG as the hub of the offense. Amen Thompson continues to impress with 18.2 points, 7.7 rebounds and 5.4 assists per contest while providing elite defense on the other end. Plus, forwards Jabari Smith Jr. (15.1 PPG, 7.9 REB) and Tari Eason (12.0 PPG, 6.2 REB) are strong two-way role players. Finally, second-year guard Reed Sheppard posts 12.9 PPG with a 39.6% three-point clip.
Spurs vs. Rockets pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rockets as 2.5-point home favorites tonight with -155 odds on the Moneyline. The Spurs are +130 ML underdogs with the game total set at 220.5 points. Betting splits show 58% of straight wagers on San Antonio to win with 68% picking the over on the total.
De’Aaron Fox wasn’t healthy the first time these teams faced off, a matchup which saw San Antonio win 121-110. However, Houston beat a mostly healthy group that was only missing Devin Vassell in a 111-106 finish earlier this month, coming back from behind to win. That one was an ugly contest through much of a second half which saw the Spurs go several minutes without scoring, which probably isn’t likely to happen tonight.
One notable trend to watch is what the Rockets do without Steven Adams, who’s missed several games due to an ankle injury and will now undergo season-ending surgery for the ailment. That leaves the Rockets without a significant rebounding threat who also sets great screens and has played a key role in the team’s two-big lineups alongside Sengun. They’ll certainly miss the big man’s presence on the offensive glass, potentially taking away some of their prowess in one of the team’s biggest areas of strength.
However, Adams didn’t play in these team’s last meeting, and the Rockets still managed to win that one with a gritty showing down the stretch. This game should likely be just as close as that one, and the spread is a little too narrow for my liking to feel comfortable on either side. With plenty of talent in both rotations and mostly healthy lineups, I like the over on the total here. These teams went over 220.5 points in their first matchup and came just four points shy in the most recent clash, so barring another horrendous cold stretch from the Spurs like last time, the over should cash here.
Top pick: Over 220.5 points (-108)
