Two of the NBA’s powerhouse teams duke it out tonight as the Detroit Pistons rise a mile high in elevation to take on the Denver Nuggets at 9 p.m. EST. While Nikola Jokic and several other key players remain sidelined for the home team, this should still be quite the matchup between two of the league’s true playoff contenders. Could it even be a preview of a potential NBA Finals series? Perhaps, but time will tell.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Detroit is a -7.5 favorite on the road with -265 odds to win on the Moneyline. The game total is set at 214.5 combined points, the second-lowest of this slate.
Here are the top Pistons vs. Nuggets prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s matchup.
Best Pistons vs. Nuggets player prop bets
Jalen Duren over 17.5 points (-106)
The Pistons remain atop the Eastern Conference, and it’s not a coincidence that the team’s ascension comes alongside a leap for center Jalen Duren. The fourth-year big man averages a career-best 17.8 PPG this season, a four-point jump in comparison to his next-highest campaign in the scoring column. As the second-leading scorer on this Detroit roster, the 22-year-old plays a key role and shows signs that he may only get better from here as his own game develops. While he missed a handful of games to start the new year, Duren has played six straight games over the last two weeks and looks like his usual self for the most part. He comes off four consecutive contests of 18+ points (going over tonight’s points prop in each), scoring 15 and 16 points in the two outings he didn’t reach that mark in.
There is a little bit of risk here since Duren’s had his minutes limited to an extent since returning, playing 28 or more minutes three times but staying below that number in three more, including in his last two games. Still, this is a matchup that provides an angle. The Nuggets are missing key frontcourt contributors like Aaron Gordon and Cam Johnson, both of whom are excellent defenders. With Nikola Jokic still sidelined, Jonas Valanciunas (probable; calf) is likely the starting center for Denver as well. This team already allows the 10th-most points to opposing centers and is likely to allow plenty of scoring inside the paint, ranking 17th in that stat as well.
Jamal Murray under 7.5 assists (-140)
The value on this -140 play isn’t exactly exciting, but it can prove useful as a builder play for your parlays in particular. Jamal Murray is shouldering a massive workload with his MVP teammate sidelined, The star guard is averaging 28.2 points and 8.4 assists per game across 10 games without Jokic, taking 20.4 shots a night at that. There have been some incredibly impressive outings for Murray, such as a 44-point explosion against the Wizards; a 22-point, 17-assist double-double against the Celtics; plus a 22-point, 16-dime night against the Nets. However, we’re targeting the under on his assists line tonight for a couple of reasons.
First up, Murray’s assists average is propped up because of those two massive outliers mentioned above. We’re not going to exclude those entirely from the sample because obviously, they happened. However, he’s stayed below double-digit dimes in seven of his 10 outings without Jokic and remained under tonight’s line of 7.5 assists in six of those. Granted, he usually flirts with that number, but he’s also gone under it in four of his six appearances since a two-game absence on January 9 and 11. The other reason is that the Pistons are one of the NBA’s best defensive squads. Detroit allows the third-fewest points (110.1) and fewest assists (22.9) to opponents of any team in the league, holding foes to the second-lowest shooting percentage as well (44.2%). With that unit almost entirely healthy aside from Caris LeVert as they face a depleted Nuggets rotation, it’s hard to see Denver having a ton of success here. Murray should stay under 7.5 assists tonight, which is why the odds on this under are what they are.
