The NFL Playoffs continue this weekend with the AFC Championship Game between the Broncos and the Patriots. Currently, New England is a 4.5-point road favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total set at 43.5.
Here are the betting splits and most popular player prop bets for this all-important AFC Championship Game.
Betting Splits
The big story of the AFC Championship Game is the absence of Bo Nix. This was a breakthrough year for the Broncos, finally taking the AFC West back from the Chiefs after so many years of struggle. Despite having their critics, Nix and the Broncos backed up their regular-season greatness with a win over Josh Allen and the Bills in the Divisional Round. However, the news then came out that Nix would be out for the rest of the postseason due to a fractured ankle. That thrusts Jarrett Stidham into the starting role against the Patriots, with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. The Broncos’ change at quarterback has the Patriots as historically big favorites on the road in Denver for the AFC Championship Game. No team has been a bigger home underdog in the conference championship round than this year’s Broncos since the merger in 1970.
Unsurprisingly, the public is reluctant to back Jarrett Stidham and the Broncos, even as home underdogs. Currently, 70% of the bets and 69% of the handle are on the Patriots to cover the spread. Additionally, 66% of the bets and 60% of the handle are on the Patriots on the Moneyline. A big majority of bettors are on the Patriots to cover, and there is only slight resistance from bigger bettors. On the Moneyline, there is a bit more resistance from bigger bettors who are targeting the value of the +180 ML value on the home team. If Stidham can perform as just a league-average NFL quarterback with this great defense and coaching staff at home, the Broncos should have a good shot to win the game.
There is a massive disparity between the public and the bigger bettors when it comes to the total. The public is evenly split on the total, with 49% of bets on the over. The public typically likes to bet overs, but with Stidham at quarterback and an elite Denver defense across from Drake Maye, the public is more interested than normal in the under. For this game, it is the bigger bettors who are taking the perceived value on the over 43.5, which is taking 77% of the handle. That means there is a massive amount of big-money bets on the over. There is a chance for defensive scores in this game along with turnovers that set up easy field position. Even if you doubt Stidham, that is a reason that the game could end up going over the total.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top five most-bet player props for Sunday’s game:
- New England Patriots D/ST Anytime TD Scorer (+400)
- Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD Scorer (+120)
- Hunter Henry Anytime TD Scorer (+185)
- Stefon Diggs Anytime TD Scorer (+205)
- TreVeyon Henderson Anytime TD Scorer (+225)
The public, as usual, is all over the anytime touchdown scorer market. In a surprising turn for a game as big as this one, all five of the most-bet player props are on members of the Patriots. With Stidham at quarterback in place of Nix, the public wants little to do with Denver in the prop market. This could come from an uncertainty of how the offense could operate differently with Stidham, although it most likely comes from a doubt in the Denver offense to produce altogether. That is why the most bet-on player prop is for the Patriots’ defense to score a touchdown. New England had a pick-six last week against Houston and will look to generate another defensive score against Denver.
The most bet-on individual player to score is running back Rhamondre Stevenson. It’s easier to talk about Stevenson in conversation with TreVeyon Henderson, who is the fifth-most bet on player to score in this game. Stevenson and Henderson form the Patriots’ backfield duo. Stevenson started the season as the main man, but the rookie Henderson took over the primary running back job by the end of the season. During the regular season, Henderson finished with ten touchdowns, and Stevenson finished with nine, a pretty even split.
In the postseason, Stevenson has once again become the primary running back. Henderson has just 52 rushing yards in two games. However, New England is yet to rush for a touchdown in the playoffs. All of the team’s offensive touchdowns have come through the air. So, the public is betting on that to change up against this elite Denver secondary.
Drake Maye has four passing touchdowns in the postseason. Hunter Henry and Stefon Diggs have each caught one of those, and they are the third and fourth-most bet-on players to score in the AFC Championship Game. Kayshon Boutte has actually been the team’s leading receiver in the postseason because of the connection he’s had on a couple of deep shots. However, Diggs leads the team with 11 targets in two games. During the regular season, Diggs led the team in receiving yards and Henry led the team in receiving touchdowns. Both players should see plenty of targets in this AFC Championship Game, but based on regular season production, Henry might be the better bet to find the end zone.
