The Prime Video doubleheader on Friday night features a pair of top teams from the Western Conference traveling to take on Eastern Conference contenders. After the Rockets visit the Pistons in the first game on Prime (check out my top player props for that game), the Milwaukee Bucks will try to get on track as they host the Denver Nuggets. Both teams are missing some key pieces, but some strong player prop bets are worth considering from the options expected to take the floor. Let’s take a look at my top player prop bets from the many available options in this matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Overall, the Bucks are 6.5-point home favorites, and the point total is 217.5, which is slightly lower than average.
Coming into this matchup, the Bucks are a disappointing 18-25, and the future of Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the focuses of the entire league as we approach the Trade Deadline. They’ve lost four of their last five games, dating back to a 108-104 loss to the Nuggets about two weeks ago. The Nuggets are 5-2 in their last seven games and bounced back from two straight losses, with a 10-point win in Washington on Thursday.
With Denver playing for a second night in a row, the team listed Peyton Watson (ankles), Jamal Murray (hamstring) and Jonas Valanciunas (calf) as questionable and Aaron Gordon (hamstring) as probable. The Bucks listed Kevin Porter Jr. (oblique) as out and Myles Turner (ankle) as probable.
Let’s look closer at the nightcap of the Prime Video doubleheader and find a few strong player prop bets to consider for this Friday night.
Nuggets vs. Bucks Best Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Peyton Watson over 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-117)
With Nikola Jokic (knee) sidelined for the last 13 games, Watson has taken his game to the next level. In those 13 games, Watson has averaged 23.1 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.8 assists for 32.2 PRA (points, rebounds and assists).
On Thursday against the Wizards, Watson played 40 minutes and racked up 35 points, eight rebounds and three assists for 46 PRA. He has gone over this prop line in 10 of his last 13 contests while Jokic has been out.
While he’s questionable due to a right ankle strain and left ankle sprain, when he’s played through the issues, he’s been outstanding. If Murray ends up sitting or being limited, Watson could get even more usage if available.
It’s been exciting to see Watson step up in Jokic’s absence, and I’m backing him for another strong showing Friday.
Kyle Kuzma under 17.5 Points + Rebounds (-112)
Kuzma is averaging 17 points plus rebounds per game on the season, and even though he could get more work in the absence of Porter, I think he’ll stay under this prop line.
In his last 12 games, Kuz has finished under this prop line 10 times. He started the last two games in place of Porter, but he still only had 11 and 13 points plus rebounds.
Over his last 12 games, he’s averaging 10.0 points and 3.4 rebounds in 24.3 minutes per game. Bobby Portis has been more productive, and he should continue to squeeze Kuzma’s minutes if Kuzma continues to put up low numbers.
Aaron Gordon over 4.5 assists (+118)
Gordon has been getting much more involved with assists over his last three games, posting 11 assists against the Wizards, five assists against the Lakers, and five more assists against the Wizards in his last three games.
He is only averaging 2.5 assists per game on the season, but without Jokic, he’s stepped into much more of a passing role as a big man. With Murray, Watson and Valanciunas all uncertain, Gordon could be key to the Nuggets’ offense, and even if everyone plays, it will be similar to the rotations for his last three games.
Gordon could get much more work if other Nuggets starters are out, and he should remain a key pivot point and source of assists in his role as power forward and center against the big front court of the Bucks.
Bonus Parlay Pick: Bobby Portis over 12.5 points (-125)
If you’re building an SGP (Same Game Parlay) for this Friday night contest, adding in the over on Portis’s points takes it to a solid +950, as you can see below. If you want to mix in picks from other games, you can also build a strong SGPx with these core plays.
Portis has at least 13 points in five straight games and has produced 13.2 points per game in his 43 games this season. This pick has some nice correlation with Kuzma’s under, and especially if the Nuggets are short-handed up front, it should be a nice matchup for Portis, who had 14 points in just 17 minutes in the first meeting between these teams.
