For the AFC Championship game, the Broncos and the Patriots will meet in Denver on Sunday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, New England is favored by 4.5 points and this game carries a total of 44.5 points.
As always, DraftKings is offering some huge contests for this Showdown slate between the Broncos and the Patriots. Below, I dive into some of my favorite targets for this slate.
Set your DraftKings NFL DFS lineups here: NFL $500K Showdown Special [$100K to 1st] (NE @ DEN)
Captain’s Picks
Hunter Henry ($11,700 CPT, $7,800 FLEX)
After catching just one pass last week, very few should roster Henry at captain, and taking a chance on him in this slot could really pay off for this Showdown slate. The Broncos are a stout defense, but they have shown some vulnerability recently, allowing 26 points or more in three of of their last four home games. The Bills put up 30 points in Denver last Saturday, and Dalton Kincaid caught all six of his targets for 83 yards and a touchdown (20.3 FPTS). Henry has the potential for a similar output in Sunday’s AFC Championship, as the Broncos have struggled to contain tight ends, allowing the sixth-most yards to the position this season (1,130).
For the Patriots this season, Henry ranks first in route rate (70%) and second in target share (17.6%). The tight end is also leading the team in red zone targets (22) and he has scored double-digit FPTS in six of his last eight, including a 15.4 FPTS outing vs. the Chargers two weeks ago in the Wild Card round.
FLEX Picks
Drake Maye ($11,000 FLEX)
Maye is the safest bet for FPTS in this game and building a lineup without him would be foolish. Maye has struggled with turnovers so far in the playoffs, losing three fumbles and throwing two picks, but he has still scored 19.32 and 17.16 FPTS in his two starts. Maye leads the NFL in yards per pass this season (8.8) and he has thrown 35 touchdowns. As a rusher, he is averaging 6.2 carries per game, and Maye has rushed for at least 20 yards in five of his last six. The Broncos have been exposed for at least 25 FPTS by both Trevor Lawrence and Josh Allen over the last five weeks, and Maye should have a strong showing in Denver.
Patriots D/ST ($5,400 FLEX)
The Patriots’ defense has been outstanding so far in the playoffs, scoring 15 FPTS vs. the Chargers and 20 FPTS vs. the Texans. New England has produced nine sacks, four picks, two fumble recoveries and one touchdown. The Patriots rank second this postseason in quarterback pressures (35) and fewest yards per pass allowed (4.8). The two quarterbacks they have faced have been Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud, and these two finished with passer ratings of just 74.5 and 28.0, respectively. Now, New England will face Jarrett Stidham, who hasn’t thrown a pass in an NFL game in over two years, as Bo Nix (ankle) is done for the season. Stidham has thrown eight interceptions, fumbled four times and been sacked 19 times on 197 career pass attempts, and the Patriots’ defense should have a field day against the backup quarterback.
Courtland Sutton ($8,400 FLEX)
With Stidham under center and the Patriots’ defense thriving, every Broncos’ player is a tough sell for fantasy. However, one thing that seems for certain is Sutton leading Denver in targets, making him the best DFS option on the team. Both Troy Franklin (hamstring) and Pat Bryant (concussion) are dealing with injuries, and with them exiting early last week vs. the Bills, Sutton led the Broncos with nine targets. The receiver leads Denver in target share (21.3%), red zone targets (19), targets over 20 yards (30), and yards per route route (1.59) this season. Sutton has scored 15+ FPTS eight times and he should reach at least double-digit FPTS on Sunday with the Broncos likely to be in a negative game script as underdogs.
Fades
Jarrett Stidham ($13,500 CPT, $9,000 FLEX)
Stidham is going to be popular, simply because quarterbacks are always chalky for Showdown slates, but in this brutal matchup vs. the Patriots’ ascending defense, fading Stidham is the right move. As noted above, Stidham has thrown eight picks and fumbled four times on his 197 career pass attempts.
Stidham owns a low 59.4% completion percentage and him finishing with more turnovers than touchdowns Sunday is very likely.
The Outcome
The Broncos have had an impressive season, claiming the top seed in the AFC, but with Nix hurt and their defense not playing up to it’s standard recently, Denver’s road will end vs. the Patriots. Maye’s turnovers in the playoffs have been concerning, but the MVP candidate has continued to make clutch plays and New England’s defense is playing it’s best football of the season right now. With ease, the Patriots should win their first AFC Championship since the 2018 season this Sunday.
