For the third time in the span of two months, the NFL’s focus turns to the NFC West, where the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks will once again battle for supremacy. This time, the stakes are higher than ever: the winner will claim the NFC title and advance to the Super Bowl, which is set to be played on February 8 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., the home of another NFC West team, the San Francisco 49ers. If the Rams win, it’ll be their second appearance in five years after they won Super Bowl LVI, while if the Seahawks win, it’ll be their first since 2015.
In most NFC Championship matchups, the tale of the tape would be about the quarterbacks, and while likely MVP Matthew Stafford and Sam Darnold certainly combine for no dearth of star power, the central storyline will likely surround the teams’ star wideouts, Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Smith-Njigba got the best of Nacua in the regular season overall, hauling in 119 passes for 1,793 yards and 10 touchdowns to Nacua’s 129 catches, 1,715 yards, and 10 scores, but Nacua combined for more yards in the teams’ two regular season matchups (300 to 201), and his production came on 102 fewer snaps. Nacua has 15 catches for 167 yards in two playoff games, while Smith-Njigba had just three catches for 19 yards in his lone game.
There’s simply not much to separate these two receivers. By yards per route run, Smith-Njigba has a slight edge (3.54 to 3.47), and each has been nearly a yard better than the next-most efficient player, the Baltimore Ravens’ Zay Flowers (2.53). Each of the stars has been among the league’s three best receivers against man coverage, with Smith-Njigba holding a slight advantage, and Nacua has been the best against zone, with Smith-Njigba narrowly behind. Smith-Njigba has produced 0.1 more average yards of separation than Nacua, but Los Angeles’ leading man has been better after the catch. Nacua’s role in the offense is more stable: Smith-Njigba averaged 9.9 targets and 118.5 receiving yards per game prior to Seattle’s trade deadline acquisition of Rashid Shaheed and 9.3 targets and 93.9 receiving yards per game thereafter, while Nacua averaged 9.9 targets and 96.9 receiving yards per game in the first half of the season and 10.9 targets and 117.5 receiving yards per game in the second half.
It’s hard to go wrong with either receiver, but given that Nacua’s salary is $1,000 more expensive for this weekend’s featured Millionaire DFS contest, I’d rather build a lineup around Smith-Njigba. Opting for Smith-Njigba over Nacua would allow for your lineup to be centered around Stafford ($6,300), not Darnold ($5,500), or Kyren Williams ($6,500) to start at running back ahead of TreVeyon Henderson ($5,500). The quarterback switch would be worth 6.6 FPTS per game and the running back switch worth 4.8 FPTS per game, each more than the 2.4-FPT difference between Nacua’s and Smith-Njigba’s average production. The latter switch could be even more valuable, given that the rookie Henderson has seemingly lost most of his playing time to Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,000) and is going against the league’s best run defense.
Plus, despite Nacua’s mind-blowing performance the last time these two teams faced off at Lumen Field (12 catches, 225 yards, two touchdowns, 49.5 FPTS), the Seahawks’ secondary is just better than the Rams’ is. This season, Seattle conceded the third-fewest FPTS per game to opposing wideouts and Los Angeles allowed the ninth-most, the weakest remaining defensive unit in these playoffs. To be fair, the raw numbers overstate how bad the Rams have been — they still rank a solid ninth by expected points added on passing plays and passer rating and eighth by adjusted yards per attempt — but the Seahawks still have the best cornerback on either squad in Devon Witherspoon, who can line up either outside or in the slot and shadow Nacua all game. Los Angeles’ only top-quartile coverage corner, Roger McCreary, primarily plays in the slot and likely won’t get any reps against Smith-Njigba. Neither defense can really stop either wide receiver, but Seattle might have a slightly better chance in the long run.
