A Southwest Division showdown helps to kick off Tuesday’s NBA slate. The Houston Rockets have won back-to-back games after a rough patch and seem to be working their way back up the Western Conference standings. However, Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs are winners of three straight and look to send Kevin Durant and Co. down a rung on the conference leaderboard.
Here’s a Spurs vs. Rockets prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s game.
Spurs vs. Rockets prediction, preview
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs ride a three-game winning streak into Houston tonight as they look to add to their 30-13 record on the campaign. Momentum is growing for a team that has shocked the NBA landscape at second in the Western Conference, but it’s easy to see how the pieces here fir together.
At a glance, San Antonio sits fifth in NETRTG at +5.3 and 15th in pace.
The Spurs are impressive on both ends of the floor, scoring 117.8 PPG (eighth) and allowing 112.9 on the other end (seventh). The team has a 54.6% eFG%, posting top-eight efficiency on twos but falling to 20th in three-point percentage at 35.1%. They run a fairly balanced attack in terms of shot selection, also dishing out 26.0 assists per game (16th) and ranking 11th in AST/TO ratio behind strong guard play. San Antonio commits the fifth-fewest turnovers overall and is also excellent on the glass with 54.9 rebounds per game (seventh), ranking fourth-best in DREB% as well. Those are clear strengths, making up for a relative lack of blocks and steals. The Spurs also rank sixth-best in opponent eFG% at 53.3%, largely excelling via interior defense.
Of course, Victor Wembanyama’s 24.8 PPG, 10.8 rebounds and 2.6 blocks are all team-highs as he works as the primary star, even while not cracking 30 minutes on most nights. The guard tandem of De’Aaron Fox (20.4 PPG, 6.0 assists) and Stephon Castle (17.1 PPG, 7.0 assists) form one of the league’s highest-upside pairings. Keldon Johnson also pitches in 13.3 PPG while shooting 42.0% from three, and three other players average double-digit points.
The injury report lists Devin Vassell (adductor) as the only impact player ruled out.
Houston Rockets
It’s been a rough few weeks for the Rockets, who suffered losses to the Mavericks, Kings and Trail Blazers (twice!) to start 2026. After dropping a home game last week to the Thunder as well, Houston has now won back-to-back outings over the Wolves and Pelicans. At 25-15, the timing couldn’t have been better.
The Rockets have a NETRTG of +6.6, fourth in the league, and play at the 28th-ranked pace.
Houston’s offense posts 117.1 PPG (12th), a drop-off from early season success when it ranked top-five. The Rockets have an eFG% of 54.1%, shooting just 53.4% from two but 37.0% from three (sixth). Granted, they don’t take a high volume of three-pointers at 29th in attempts per game. They’re also issuing 24.7 assists a night (26th) with the 28th-ranked AST/TO ratio, marking signs that improved guard play is likely needed to truly contend. Houston does pace the NBA with 60.1 rebounds per outing, tallying the league’s best OREB% and seventh-best DREB%. The group allows 110.7 PPG on the other end (fourth), holding opponents to a 53.4% eFG% (eighth). The Rockets are also sixth in blocks and 12th in steals, so defensive disruption is a trend.
Kevin Durant’s first season in red has played out nicely, averaging 26.1 PPG on splits that are just shy of the coveted 50%/40%/90% mark. Co-star Alperen Sengun posts 21.6 PPG with 9.2 rebounds, 6.3 assists and 2.5 combined stocks, the latter three stats of which are all team-bests. Amen Thompson (18.6 PPG, 7.7 rebounds, 5.1 assists) and Jabari Smith Jr. (15.4 PPG, 6.9 REB) anchor the forward group, as does Tari Eason (12.0 PPG, 6.0 REB, 46.9% 3P%) when healthy. Reed Sheppard is the lone other double-digit scorer with 12.0 PPG.
The Rockets’ injury report lists Eason (ankle) as questionable and Steven Adams (ankle) as out.
Spurs vs. Rockets pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rockets as 4.5-point home favorites tonight with -162 odds on the Moneyline. The Spurs are +136 ML underdogs with the game total set at 221.5 points. Betting splits show 54% of straight wagers on San Antonio to win with 77% picking the over on the total.
These teams have squared off just once this season, a 121-110 win for the Spurs in San Antonio which saw a 14-point, 13-assist double-double help power his team to victory. Fox also wasn’t healthy for that outing, so the Spurs get a big boost this time around with the star guard healthy and available.
Houston may out-rebound their opponent as it typically does, but fighting with Luke Kornet and Wembanyama in the paint does make that a tougher battle than usual. The absence of Adams also means no double-big lineup to compete with that pairing, and if Eason doesn’t play, the Rockets will also miss another one of their junkyard-dog forwards as well who tends to crash the boards well. With a somewhat understaffed rotation a real possibility, the home team could regress in the area it’s best in. That spells a real problem.
If the Rockets can scrap and claw their way into keeping this game close, they have a shot at winning this one. However, they haven’t eclipsed 120 points since New Year’s Day, so defense has to be the key tonight. The Spurs have plenty of weapons and will make life difficult on their opponent in the paint, so it’s almost surprising to see them listed as an underdog. I like them a lot at +4.5 and would certainly consider a ML pick at +136, if not an alt line to push the value higher.
Top pick: SA Spurs +4.5 (-112)
