Tipping off across today’s nine-game NBA slate, the Oklahoma City Thunder will face the Miami Heat.
This will mark the second and final matchup between these two cross-conference opponents. The Thunder produced a 124-112 victory in Oklahoma City on Sunday. This matchup will be taking place down in Miami just six days later as part of a four-game road trip for the defending champions.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s matchup, the Thunder enter as 10.5-point favorites and hold -440 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Heat hold +340 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 235.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Saturday night matchup.
Thunder at Heat prediction, preview
The Oklahoma City Thunder remain at the top of the Western Conference with a 35-7 record on the year. While they hit a bit of a skid by their sky-high standards, the defending champions enter this matchup on a five-game winning streak. Oklahoma City is 21-21 against the spread this season, and the game total has gone under in 22 of its 42 matchups played.
Isaiah Hartenstein has been ruled out for tonight’s matchup with a calf injury, while Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber remain sidelined. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander headlines the production and has climbed out to the MVP favorite again this year at -400 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The reigning MVP is averaging 31.7 points, 6.3 assists and 4.4 rebounds per game. Jalen Williams is still working his way back from his hand issue to get back to the best version of himself, but he adds 17.2 points, 5.7 assists and 4.8 rebounds. Chet Holmgren has shown some encouraging growth, pitching in 17.9 points, 8.4 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game. Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell, Aaron Wiggins and Alex Caruso each also play a key role in the rotation.
As a team, the Thunder rank second in the league in scoring at 121.1 points per game. They rank fifth in offensive rating, third in field-goal percentage, 15th in three-point percentage and 15th in pace. Defensively, they are holding opponents to the fewest points per game at 107.7. Oklahoma City also leads the league in defensive rating, ranks first in opponent field-goal percentage, forces the most turnovers and ranks 26th in opponent three-point percentage.
The Miami Heat hold a 21-20 record on the year, which slots them at eighth place in the Eastern Conference. They have lost four of their past five games entering tonight, including the first matchup with Oklahoma City. The Heat are 23-18 against the spread this season, and the game total has gone under in 22 of their 41 games played.
Davion Mitchell and Jaime Jaquez have been ruled out for the matchup, while Tyler Herro and Nikola Jovic are listed as questionable. Norman Powell leads the team in scoring with 23.9 points per game, and he is shooting 41.3% on three-point attempts while launching 7.3 perimeter attempts per game. It has been an up-and-down season for Bam Adebayo, but he is posting averages of 17.0 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists on the season. Andrew Wiggins adds 15.8 points, 4.9 rebounds and 2.8 assists, while Kel’el Ware and Pelle Larsson have had some nice flashes throughout the year.
Miami has changed its style of attack this season, playing at the fastest pace in the NBA. It is averaging 119.5 points per game, which is the fifth-best rate in the league, and it ranks 21st in offensive rating, 17th in field-goal percentage and eighth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 117.8 points per game against the Heat, which ranks 22nd. The Heat also rank fourth in defensive rating, fourth in opponent field-goal percentage and fourth in opponent three-point percentage.
Thunder at Heat pick, best bet
The Thunder hit a bit of a rough patch in December, losing six games over a 12-game stretch. But they are back to not only winning at a high level, but also steamrolling teams in the process. After defeating the Heat by 12 points in the previous matchup, the Oklahoma City Thunder have tallied back-to-back double-digit wins against the Spurs and Rockets. They held both Western Conference threats to below 100 points and led for at least 80% of the matchup in both games.
Miami showed some signs of life in the early parts of this season, but has slipped a little of late. Facing a team of the Thunder’s caliber does not make it an easy task to get back on track. The Heat have dropped four of their past five games, with the losses coming against the Timberwolves, Pacers, Thunder and Celtics. While they kept the margin to five points against Boston, they lost by double-digits in the other three losses. This includes being blown out 122-94 by the Timberwolves and 123-99 by the Pacers.
The Heat’s path to success is by pushing the pace and getting out in transition at a rate that makes opponents uncomfortable. But the Thunder’s roster is loaded with youth and athleticism. Oklahoma City is producing the best transition defense in the league, giving up just 1.02 points per possession in these opportunities and holding teams to the third-worst effective field-goal percentage in transition. Count on the defending champions to have success beating Miami down the floor and for this to stunt its offensive approach.
It takes near-perfect execution to beat this Thunder team, and Miami has plenty of variance for how it looks on a night-to-night basis. Oklahoma City has woken up from whatever funk it was in and is back to performing at an extremely high level. Count on the Thunder to get the better of this Heat team and cover this double-digit spread for the second consecutive matchup.
