All hands on deck for the Los Angeles Rams as they travel to Chicago to face the Bears. It’s going to be a cold night at Soldier Field, and it’s up to the sun-soaked Rams to stay hot and not let the weather get to them. Kyren Williams is going to be a crucial part of Sean McVay’s formula for victory. He’s also a huge fixture on our player prop market.
The Rams are 4.5-point favorites for tonight’s matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 48.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bet centered around Williams.
Best Kyren Williams Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook
Kyren Williams Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
The problem here isn’t the Chicago Bears run defense, which has not been good. They’re 24th in EPA allowed per run and have struggled all season with making consistent stops. The problem for Williams is that week by week, he is losing his job to Blake Corum.
Through the first six weeks of the regular season, it was Williams’ backfield. He was getting 15.8 carries per game while playing 77% of the offensive snaps. Meanwhile, Corum received 4.8 carries per game while playing 21.9% of the offensive snaps. It was a typical RB1 and RB2 situation. But then things started to change.
Week 7 against the Jaguars was the turning point. From that game on, Williams’ usage declined: he still picked up 14 carries per game but the snap share went down to 63.4%. Corum’s usage doubled, going up to 10.5 carries per game while taking 33% of the snaps. It was a shift to a true 1A-1B dynamic. And as long as Corum was breaking off punishing runs, he was getting carries.
The cold weather will add a few carries to Williams’ ledger, but the same goes for Corum. He has flat-out been the better runner of the two, and McVay won’t hesitate to ride the hot hand. They had a near-even split last week against the Panthers, and this may be the week where Corum finally takes control. I don’t think Williams will have the volume needed to hit 60 rushing yards, so I’m hammering the under.
