Only seven teams have ever made the playoffs after starting 0-3, and of those seven, only two, including this season’s Houston Texans, ended up winning a playoff game. The only other team to have done that, the 1992 San Diego Chargers, saw their playoff run come to a screeching halt in the Divisional Round with a 31-0 thrashing against the Miami Dolphins.
On Sunday, the Texans will hope to avoid befalling the same fate when they play their Divisional Round matchup against the New England Patriots. Houston, which entered the league as an expansion franchise in 2002, has never made the AFC Championship Game. Breaking its futile streak won’t be easy, as the Patriots finished with the AFC’s No. 2 seed and play in Foxborough, Mass., a city known for occasionally noxious weather conditions.
New England is a three-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 40.5. The Patriots are -175 on the Moneyline, and the Texans are +145.
DraftKings is offering a Showdown contest for the marquee matchup with $350,000 in total prizes and a $100,000 top prize. Below, I’ve laid out my strategy, with two Captain’s Picks, two FLEX options, and one fade.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $350K Showdown Special [$100K to 1st] (HOU @ NE).
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Rhamondre Stevenson ($12,000 CP) – Stevenson has more or less operated a time share throughout the season with rookie TreVeyon Henderson ($11,100 CP), and while he was definitely Henderson’s junior partner for much of the season, he’s returned to his leading role with a vengeance after New England’s Week 14 bye. Since then, he’s averaged 21.96 FPTS per game, easily more than Henderson’s 13.08, and while Henderson struggled to get much going against the Los Angeles Chargers last weekend, Stevenson gashed Los Angeles both on the ground and through the air. On the Patriots’ back-to-back scoring drives late in third quarter and early in the fourth to ice the game, Stevenson took all of the team’s carries.
Picking anyone against Houston’s elite defense is a risk, especially when that back is as turnover-prone as Stevenson, who’s fumbled 10 times in the last two seasons. But while the Texans’ run defense is good, ranking 11th in expected points added, fourth by total yards, and eighth by yards per attempt in the regular season, it pales in comparison to their elite pass defense, which allowed the third-lowest completion percentage and snagged interceptions at the third-highest rate. Houston has been comparatively more gettable by running backs through the air, and Stevenson has been far more effective as a receiver than Henderson.
Christian Kirk ($9,300 CP) – Nico Collins ($15,000 CP) was carted off early in the Texans’ Wild Card Round blowout against the Pittsburgh Steelers with a concussion, and, along with Justin Watson ($1,500 CP), he’ll miss the Divisional Round. Rookie Jayden Higgins ($10,800 CP) was unable to step up his game in Collins’ absence, finishing with just three catches for 39 yards (6.9 FPTS), but Kirk (eight catches for 144 yards and a touchdown, good for 31.4 FPTS) did. The vintage performance multiplied the eight-year veteran’s season fantasy output by more than three-halves, so while expecting another 30-plus-FPTS is certainly unreasonable, it’d be hard to blame C.J. Stroud ($15,300 CP) for rolling with the hot hand. Kirk also receives the ball in better positions than Higgins, averaging 1.1 more expected yards after the catch per reception than the rookie and making him more likely to record a breakout play.
New England’s defense is solid but beatable. Though the Patriots allowed just the 12th-fewest FPTS per game to the position, they definitely weren’t perfect, giving up the the ninth-highest completion percentage and 12th-highest passer rating. Kirk should have a gettable matchup in New England slot corner Marcus Jones, who, despite posting the 24th-highest coverage grade among the 112 qualified cornerbacks at Pro Football Focus, allowed a 113.9 passer rating, a 75.0% completion percentage, and seven touchdowns as the nearest defender. Plus, the Patriots operated in man coverage at the league’s ninth-highest rate, and Kirk ranked second on the team (behind only Collins) in receiving grade against man.
FLEX Plays
Drake Maye ($11,200) – The potential MVP didn’t have to do too much in the Wild Card Round, completing just 58.6% of his passes (his second-lowest mark of the season) but still putting up an efficient 268 yards and a touchdown and adding another 10 carries for 66 yards on the ground (19.3 FPTS). Whether that relatively quiet performance could be a concern, given his lack of playoff experience, it’s more likely that it was a product of the Chargers not doing enough on offense to force Maye to throw. His bad throw rate was only slightly higher than his season average, and he was severely hurt by the fact that New England’s receivers dropped four passes. The Patriots will certainly do a better job holding onto the ball this weekend, and Houston’s offense is good enough to keep Maye aggressive.
While the Texans’ defense needs no introduction, they primarily thrive because they force lots of incompletions, and Maye easily led the league in completion percentage over expectation. They’ve also notched the third-most interceptions, including a game-sealing pick-six against Aaron Rodgers in perhaps the final pass of his Hall of Fame career, but Maye had top-10 marks in bad throw rate and on-target rate and finished near the top 10 in turnover-worthy play rate. Plus, Houston blitzes at the league’s fifth-lowest rate, and Maye’s offense grade rose from ninth while blitzed to second when not.
Dalton Schultz ($5,600) – Schultz had a quiet performance in the Wild Card Round, recording just three catches for 12 yards (4.2 FPTS), but he did have double-digit FPTS in four of the final six weeks of the regular season. All in all, he finished second on the team (behind Collins) in receiving yards and easily led the team in success rate. Stroud also had his highest passer rating when passing to Schultz of any of the five Texans receivers with more than 50 targets. His target profile is very different from Collins’, and he had a quiet performance in one of the two games he’s played without Collins this season, but if Stroud is looking for another pass-catcher besides Kirk to trust, Schultz is that guy.
Critically, New England has been comparatively weak against opposing tight ends, allowing the 12th-most FPTS per game to the position. That isn’t even entirely a matter of volume: the Patriots have allowed the 11th-most catches and league-average efficiency. They’ve had some vulnerabilities up the middle, thanks to their lackluster safety depth: while Jaylinn Hawkins finished with the seventh-best coverage grade among 100 qualified safeties, Craig Woodson ranked just 61st. Schultz could also get plenty of snaps against New England’s linebackers, who rank just 28th overall in coverage.
Fades
Texans D/ST ($4,400) – Picking the Texans’ defense would be understandable, given that it just scored 27 FPTS last weekend, but it can’t be expected to score two defensive touchdowns against the Patriots. Not only did Maye throw just one pick-six, none of New England’s fumbles ended up being returned for touchdowns. Plus, the Patriots put up points all season, finishing with the league’s second-highest scoring offense. Maye did finish fourth in the league in sacks, but he’s been far better about that as the season has gone on, and with left tackle Will Campbell’s improved health, getting to Maye could prove challenging even for Will Anderson Jr. Houston also won’t want to risk Maye making plays with his legs, so it might have a much more conservative game plan than it did against the immobile Rodgers.
THE OUTCOME
With all due respect to the strong New England offense and the hot Texans offense, this could be a gritty, defensive battle, especially with Collins sidelined. The Patriots dodged a bullet when All-Pro corner Christian González was cleared from concussion protocol in time to likely play in the Divisional Round, and he should be able to limit the damage against Higgins and Kirk.
Perhaps I shouldn’t read too much into Houston’s performance against an aging Rodgers, but a 30-6 demolition is hard to ignore, especially since the Texans held the Steelers to just 175 total yards. Excepting a Week 18 win against the Indianapolis Colts in which most of its defensive starters played less than half the game, Houston hasn’t allowed its opponents to score more than 21 points since November 9. New England’s display in the Wild Card Round was impressive, but the Texans’ offensive line surely won’t allow Stroud to get pressured on nearly 30% of his drop-backs as Los Angeles’ did Herbert.
